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The Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers begin the 2020 NBA Finals with Game 1 on Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET at the AdventHealth Arena in Orlando, Florida.
This is an interesting finals matchup between two teams who missed the playoffs last season. The Heat are making their first Finals appearance since 2014 when LeBron James last played for the franchise. Meanwhile, James has led the Lakers back to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2010 when Kobe Bryant was still playing for the Lakers. The Heat surprised many by upsetting the no. 1 Bucks in the second round and the no. 3 Celtics in the Conference Finals. Meanwhile, Los Angeles has cruised to the Finals as the top-seeded team in the Western Conference.
This is the first-ever meeting between these two teams in the NBA Finals. They have played in a total of 64 games all-time and Los Angeles leads their head to head series 37-27.
Miami Heat
Miami is in the Finals for the first time since LeBron James led them to four straight appearances in the championship series. The Heat have been impressive in the current postseason, dropping only three games on their way to Game 1. They swept the Pacers in Game 1 and then ousted the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks in five. The Heat then eliminated the Boston Celtics in six games during the Eastern Conference Finals.
Goran Dragic leads the Heat in postseason scoring with his 20.9 points per game average. Jimmy Butler is putting up 20.7 points and 5.7 rebounds per contest in the postseason while all-star center Bam Adebayo is averaging a double-double at 18.5 points and 11.4rebounds per game. Rookie Tyler Herro is having a fantastic postseason at 16.5 points per game including a career-high 37 points in Game 4 against the Celtics.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are back in the NBA Finals after a decade. The team missed the playoffs last season in LeBron’s first season in Los Angeles. Los Angeles added Anthony Davis during the offseason and they immediately became title contenders. The Lakers finished with the best record in the West and they didn’t have much trouble disposing of the Portland Trail Blazers, Houston Rockets, and the Denver Nuggets.
Davis leads the Lakers in scoring at 28.8 points per game while also grabbing 9.8 rebounds per game. James is also having a terrific postseason as he is putting up a double-double. The Lakers have been a scoring juggernaut as they have outscored their playoff opponents by 15 points per 100 possessions. Kyle Kuzma is the only other player scoring in double digits at 10.5 points per contest. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Rajon Rondo are averaging 9.9 points and 9.1 points per game. Dwight Howard is also contributing 7.3 points and 5.5 rebounds per game for the Lakers.
Who Wins?
The Heat are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games played. Miami is 1-4 SU in their last five games played against the Pacific Division. The Lakers are 8-1 SU in their last nine games played. Los Angeles is 16-9 SU in their last 25 games against the Eastern Conference. Head to head, the Lakers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against the Heat, including 6-1 SU in their last seven meetings.
LeBron James is back in the Finals and he looks better than ever. The King has averaged 26.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 8.9 assists per game in the postseason. And not only is he playing well, but he’s also well-rested as he’s posting only 35.0 minutes per outing so far which isn’t much given his previous postseasons. Anthony Davis is expected to face a challenge in Adebayo so LeBron’s production will be important for the Lakers.
Don’t count out the Heat here. Seven out of their last eight wins have come as underdogs and this is a team that is confident of getting the job done. Jimmy Butler’s tenacious style has rubbed off on his teammates and the Heat head to Game 1 with nothing to lose and everything to gain.
If there’s a game where Miami has a good shot at winning, it’s this one. The Lakers lost the opening games of two out of their three playoff series and they are slow starters. However, this is the Finals and I think that LeBron and AD are ready. The Heat should give a good fight but in the end, I believe that the Lakers will pull off a hard-earned win.
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers
Other Bets To Make
Miami is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games played. The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games played on the road. Los Angeles is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games played. The Lakers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the Southeast Division. Head to head, these teams have split their last 10 meetings ATS but the Heat are 2-1 ATS in their last three games played against the Lakers.
Heat
+4.5 (-112)
Lakers
-4.5 (-108)
Odds from BetOnline as of 09/30/2020
The Lakers have outscored the Heat by an average of 6.2 points per game in their last 10 head to head meetings and 7.0 points per game in their most recent three encounters. But this is the playoffs and you can take away Los Angeles’ two wins in the regular season. The Heat’s rotation has changed dramatically and this is a team that has won every Game 1 this season. Meanwhile, the Lakers are notoriously slow starters in their current playoff run, losing two of three Game 1s. I like the Lakers to win but I think it’s going to go down the wire.
Prediction: Heat +4.5
The total has gone over in five out of the last six games played by the Heat. Miami has seen the total go over in six out of their last seven games played against the Western Conference. The total has gone over in four out of the last five games played by the Lakers. The over is 4-1 in their last five games played in September. Head to head, the total has gone under in four out of the last five games between these two teams. The under is also 9-1 in Miami’s last 10 road games against Los Angeles.
Over
217.5 (-110)
Under
217.5 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 09/30/2020
These teams have combined to score an average of 208.8 points per game in their last 10 meetings and 203.66 points per game in their most recent three contests. These teams ranked in the Top 10 in scoring defense during the regular season and the Lakers have conceded 108 or fewer points in their last three wins. Gone are the days when the Splash Brothers ruled a high-scoring finals series. I think both teams will try to stop one another with defense here.
Prediction: Under 217.5
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