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The Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets renew their rivalry again on Friday night at the Toyota Center in Houston.
Deja Vu?
Last season, Chris Paul was hurt during the Rockets’ Game 5 win in the 2018 Western Conference Finals. Paul would miss Games 6 & 7 and the Warriors won both games to advance to the Finals. In Game 5 of this current series, the Warriors won but lost Kevin Durant to a calf injury. Looks like deja vu, doesn’t it?
With Durant leaving Game 5, the Warriors’ backcourt stepped up and delivered the big baskets needed to put away the Rockets. Klay Thompson scored 27 points and shot 5-10 from behind the three point area while Stephen Curry put up 25 points on 9-23 shooting. Their 52 combined points in Game 5 was the first time this postseason that the Splash Brothers of old have combined for at least 50 points in a single game.
Warriors
+275
Rockets
-330
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 5/10/19
Holding Court
The Houston Rockets entered Game 5 with all the momentum after winning Games 3 and 4. They also had a break when Kevin Durant left the game with a calf injury. But instead of completing a comeback from 20-points down, the Rockets misfired down the stretch and allowed the Warriors to make the big shots on their end of the floor. With Game 6 at their home floor, the Rockets hope to hold court and extend the series to a Game 7.
James Harden had another big game with 31 points on 10-19 shooting but as a team, the Rockets shot just 41.8% from the floor and 29.3% from behind the three point area. Chris Paul went 0-6 from downtown while Eric Gordon went 3-10 from deep. Paul and Gordon combined to shoot just 8-28 in Game 5 for the Rockets.
Who Wins?
Golden State is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. The Warriors are 3-2 SU in their last five games on the road. Houston is also 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. The Rockets are 5-0 SU in their last five games played at home. Head to head, the Rockets have won two out of their last three meetings with the Warriors.
The Warriors gutted out a close win in Game 5 and they did so with Kevin Durant not during the crucial stages of the game after he suffered a calf injury. Durant is likely out of this game and maybe the series, leaving Golden State without its top scorer. But remember that the Dubs were champions even before Durant came. This complacency only came when Durant arrived.
The Rockets had their chances in Game 5, especially when Durant got hurt. Not that they can’t win with KD on the other side, but the Rockets have a better shot if KD isn’t playing this game. Paul shot just 3-14 and missed all six three point attempts while Harden just took three shots in the fourth period. This team is very good but it’s still feeling the pressure.
I think this is going to be a close game, much like every game of this series has been. I like the Rockets because they are playing at home but I suspect that pressure is going to make it more difficult for them to win. I think Golden State’s bench answers the call here, especially their veterans. I also like the fact that the Dubs are a +275 basketball betting underdog here. I’m picking the Golden State Warriors to beat the Houston Rockets in Game 6 of their second round series.
Other Bets To Make
The Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played. Golden State is 2-3 ATS in their last five road games. The Rockets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played. Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Head to head, the Rockets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the Warriors.
Warriors
+7 (-105)
Rockets
-7 (-115)
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 5/10/19
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in their last five conference semifinals games, 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games and also 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Dubs are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games against an opponent with a winning straight up record and 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Western Conference. The Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven conference semifinals games, 4-1 ATS in their last five games against an opponent with a winning record of at least .600, 4-1 ATS in their last five games against an opponent with a winning straight up record and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
The Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings in Houston and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 overall games against the Rockets. When you look at the trends, they all point to Houston. Golden State has played lackluster against the spread all season long while the Rockets have been money ATS. But I think seven points is too much to give to a team which has won the NBA title the last two seasons. Sure, the Finals MVP of the last two years is probably out of this game and maybe the series, but remember that team has been here before. Adversity is nothing new to them. The Rockets may win this game but this is just too many free points to give away. Prediction: Warriors +7
The total has gone over in seven out of the last 10 games played by the Warriors. Golden State has seen the total go over in four out of their last five games on the road. The under is 6-3-1 in the Rockets last 10 games played. The over/under is 2-2-1 in Houston’s last five home games. Head to head, the under is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. The under is also 10-4 in the last 14 meetings between these teams in Houston
Warriors
O 212.5 -110
Rockets
U 212.5 -110
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 5/10/19
The under is 20-8-1 in the last 29 meetings between these teams in Houston. With Durant likely out of the game and maybe the entire series, that’s going to be too many points missed despite the fact that both teams have plenty of firepower. Also, this game is so crucial that both teams are going to do more than just score here. They will try to stop each other from scoring instead of trying to outscore each other. Prediction: Under 212.5
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