Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics Game 6 Preview and Prediction

The Golden State Warriors try to close out the Boston Celtics in Game 6 of the 2022 NBA Finals.

Golden State took a crucial 3-2 series lead after beating Boston 104-94 in Game 5 which was played at Chase Center in Oakland. Steph Curry missed all of his nine three-point attempts and finished with only 16 points on 7-22 shooting but Andrew Wiggins played the Game of his life to lead the Warriors to victory.

The Dubs took a 12-point halftime lead but Boston outscored them by 11 points in the third quarter to cut the lead to one entering the fourth. Fortunately for Golden State, the Celtics shot blanks in the 4th period and the Dubs pulled away for good to take the win and grab the pivotal 3-2 series lead.

Boston will now attempt to send the series to a winner-take-all Game 7 and they will have the backing of the hometown crowd with Game 6 to be played at the TD Garden.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are on the brink of their fourth NBA title in the last eight years. Golden State moved to within one game of winning the championship after taking Monday’s Game 5 at Chase Center.

Steph Curry had his first off night in the 2022 NBA Finals but Andrew Wiggins emerged big with 26 points and 13 rebounds to lead the Warriors and Draymond Green had 8 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists.

Klay Thompson made half of his 14 shots with five triples made for 21 points while Jordan Poole added 14 including another heave as time expired in the third period as the Dubs took the lead for good to start the 4th period. Gary Payton II was the difference-maker off the bench with 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 steals.

Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics know they let another one slip away. After blowing a six-point lead in the final six minutes of Game 4, the Celtics erased a 12-point halftime deficit to take a five-point lead late in the third period. But Boston faltered in the 4th quarter for the second straight game and they now need to win out the remaining games to win the NBA Title.

Jayson Tatum had 27 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 assists but also committed 4 turnovers. Marcus Smart added 20 points but Jaylen Brown shot just 5-18 for 18 points and Al Horford took only six shots and scored only nine points.

But perhaps what hurt Boston most was that their bench scored only 10 points with Derrick White missing all of his four field goal attempts and scoring only one point from a free throw. Payton Pritchard went scoreless while Grant Williams only scored 3 points for Boston.

Who Wins?

The Warriors are 4-8 SU in their last 12 games played against the Celtics. Boston is also 3-2 SU in their last five home games against Golden State.

The Warriors are:

• 8-3 SU in their last 11 games played.

• 2-2 SU in their last four games played on the road.

• 12-6 U in their last 18 games played in June

• 11-13 SU in their last 24 games as betting underdog.

• 9-8 SU in their last 17 road games against the Eastern Conference.

The Celtics are:

• 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played.

• 13-7 SU in their last 20 games played at home.

• 13-4 SU in their last 17 games played against the Western Conference.

• 20-15 SU in their last 35 games against the Western Conference.

• 16-7 SU in their last 23 games as betting favorites.

The Warriors have the Celtics on the ropes. Over 80% of the teams that take a 3-2 lead when a best-of-seven playoff series is tied at 2-2 have gone on to win the series. But the Celtics are one of the teams that have proven that wrong as they beat the Milwaukee Bucks in Games 6 and 7 of their second round playoff series.

No question, the Dubs have the momentum and they are feeling good knowing they won by 10 points in Game 5 in a game where Steph Curry missed all of his three-point shots. Curry is due for a big bounce-back game and that big game could close out the Celtics in Game 6. The Dubs will be tough to beat especially if Andrew Wiggins, Gary Payton II, and Jordan Poole continue to play well.

However, this is a Boston team that has gone seven games in their previous two playoff series played. They won two Game 7s on the road this postseason so even if the Dubs have a massive edge in championship experience, this is a Boston team that has been sharpened in the previous two rounds of the postseason.

Turnovers and poor free-throw shooting have doomed Boston in the last two games but they should shoot better and take care of the ball better playing in front of their fans at the TD Garden. The Celtics don’t’ have a stellar home record in the playoffs but with their season on the line, I expect them to come up with a strong performance.

Prediction: Boston Celtics

Warriors vs Celtics Spread Prediction

Golden State is 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games played against Boston. The Warriors are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in Boston.

The Golden State Warriors are:

• 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600.

• 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning straight up record.

• 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.

• 18-40 ATS in their last 58 Thursday games.

• 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 NBA Championship games.

• 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

• 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.

• 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage better than .600.

The Boston Celtics are:

• 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.

• 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.

• 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss.

• 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games playing on two days’ rest.

• 6-3 ATS in their last n9 games against the Pacific Division

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600.

• 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss.

• 12-5 ATS in their last 17 NBA Championship games.

• 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

• 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 2-6 ATS in their last eight games played in June.

Golden State has covered three out of the last four games of this championship series, including Game 4 where they were a +4 at the TD Garden. It looks like the Dubs have the momentum on their side right now with Boston’s shooting struggling in the 4th quarters of Games 4 and 5.

The Celtics shot just 41% from the field in Game 5 and missed 10 free throws in a game where the winning margin was 10 points. Although Boston can catch fire in a hurry as they did in the 3rd quarter of Game 5, they can also struggle so badly as they have in the 4th quarters of Game 4 and 5.

Steph Curry is coming off an off-game and considering how he played in the first four games of the series, he will likely bounce back with a strong Game 6. That’s going to be a problem for the Celtics if Wiggins, Thompson, Payton, and Poole continue to put up big numbers.

Boston looks like it is disintegrating right now but do not forget that this is a Boston team that took Game 6 at Boston and Game 7 at the Fiserv Forum to eliminate the defending champions, Milwaukee Bucks. I expect the Celtics to have one last hurrah at home.

Prediction: Celtics -3.5

Warriors vs Celtics Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in 19 out of the last 26 games played between these two teams. The under is also 7-3 in their last 10 meetings in Boston.

Golden State Warriors over/under trends:

• Over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 overall.

• Over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.

• Over is 11-4 in the Warriors’ last 15 NBA Championship games.

• Over is 9-1-1 in the Warriors’ last 11 Thursday games.

• Over is 13-5 in the Warriors’ last 18 road games against. a team with a winning home record.

• Over is 5-2-1 in the Warriors’ last 8 playoff games as an underdog.

• Over is 7-3 in the Warriors’ last 10 road games.

• Over is 11-5 in the Warriors’ last 16 games following a straight up win.

• Over is 11-5 in the Warriors’ last 16 games as a road underdog.

• Under is 5-2 in the Warriors’ last 7 games as an underdog.

• Under is 7-3 in the Warriors’ last 10 games playing on 2 days rest.

• Under is 13-3 in the Warriors’ last 16 against a team with a winning straight up record.

Boston Celtics over/under trends:

• Over is 6-0 in the Celtics’ last 6 Thursday games.

• Under is 6-3 in the Celtics’ last nine games played.

• Under is 27-25 in the Celtics’ last 52 games played at home.

• Under is 5-1 in the Celtics’ last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 8-2 in the Celtics’ last 10 NBA Championship games.

• Under is 4-1 in the Celtics’ last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.

• Under is 6-2 in the Celtics’ last 8 games following an ATS loss.

• Under is 12-4 in the Celtics’ last 16 games against a team with a winning straight up record.

• Under is 5-2 in the Celtics’ last 7 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 7-3 in the Celtics’ last 10 games as a favorite.

• Under is 7-3 in the Celtics’ last 10 playoff games as a favorite.

These teams have combined to score an average of 213.1 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings but only 206.0 points per game in their most recent three encounters, including a mere 198 in Game 5. The under is 3-1 in the last four games of the series with both teams turning to their defense to stop the other.

It’s been feast or famine for Boston in the Finals. They have scored less than 100 points in three out of the last four games played but are averaging 118 PPG in the other two games played. Meanwhile, the Warriors are averaging only 106 points per game in the last three games of the series. Like Boston, Golden State has turned to its defensive prowess to help them win games. So far, it has been successful as they’ve held the C’s to under 100 points in the last two games.

The pressure will be high for Boston as they need to win out the remaining games to win the title. Although they are playing at home, they will feel the jitters and may end up struggling with their shots. Though I still think Boston extends the series, Game 6 won’t be pretty.

Prediction: Under 209.5

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