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The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets head to Louisville to face the Louisville Cardinals in an ACC battle on October 5, 2018 at the Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky.
Both teams are currently 0-2 in conference play right now and also share the same 2-3 record. However, while Louisville is coming off back to back losses to Virginia and Florida State, Georgia Tech enters this matchup fresh off a win over Bowling Green.
All About The Run
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are currently averaging 453.2 yards per game of offense and 339.2 of those yards have been gained on the ground. The Yellow Jackets offense is about the run, after all, they have the 2nd best running offense in the nation.
Last week, Georgia Tech rushed for 372 yards during a 63-17 beatdown of Bowling Green. They outgained their opponents 532-393 in total yards while forcing three turnovers. Yellow Jackets’ quarterback TaQuon Marshall threw only six passes in the game but completed five for a total of 160 yards. Tobias Oliver led the way with 115 rushing yards and two touchdowns but more impressive than that, there were five other Georgia Tech players who rushed for at least 42 yards during the game.
Oliver and Jordan Mason are averaging 6.9 yards per carry while Marshall leads the team with 382 rushing yards. Georgia Tech is all about the run and it works both ways for them. If it’s on, they win big like they did last week. If they are stalled on the ground, they don’t have much chance of winning games.
Georgia Tech vs Louisville 10/5/18
Odds: Georgia Tech -190, Louisville +165
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 10/04/18
Quarterback Rotation
For the first time in the 2018 NCAA Football season, one quarterback played the entire game for the Louisville Cardinals as Jawon Pass played the entire game against Florida State last week. The Cardinals’ quarterback rotation has been their highlight this season as it was Pass who started their first three games but was later relieved by Malik Cunningham. Cunningham started their 4th game but Pass also replaced him later in the game. It will be interesting to see what coach Bobby Petrino does on Friday against Georgia Tech.
Pass threw for 306 yards on 24-45 attempts with two touchdowns and two interceptions against the Seminoles. The sophomore quarterback also fumbled the ball three times but the Cardinals recovered all three. Louisville ran for only 115 yards in the game with Trey Smith accounting for 70 yards on five yards per carry. Jaylen Smith had five receptions and a total of 100 receiving yards.
The Cardinals outgained the Seminoles 421-370 and had eight more first downs than Florida State. They practically played better than Florida State but could not get the touchdowns. Ultimately, the three turnovers committed by the Cardinals cost them a game which they led 21-7 at the half. They can’t afford to commit those many errors against a rushing machine in Georgia Tech.
Who Wins?
The Yellow Jackets are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games and 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road. On the other hand, the Cardinals are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games but are 4-1 SU in their last five games at home.
Louisville is a respectable 2-2 at home this season with its losses coming at the hands of Alabama and Florida State. You can argue with the loss to the Seminoles because the Cardinals had a chance to win but those three turnovers cost them the game. Georgia Tech is 0-2 in ACC play and have scored only 19 against Pittsburgh and 21 versus Clemson.
In a game where defense won’t be much of a factor, a battle between two struggling teams should go down to who has home field advantage. In that case, it’s the Cardinals who have won four out of their last five at Cardinal Stadium. Also, I don’t like how Georgia Tech’s offense is so one-dimensional so I’m going with the Cardinals.
Prediction Louisville +165
Other Bets To Make
Georgia Tech is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games against the ACC, 0-4-1 in their last five games on the road and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. On the other hand, Louisville is 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games after an ATS win, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games played at home and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Georgia Tech vs Louisville 10/5/18
Spread Odds: Georgia Tech -4.5 (-102), Louisville +4.5 (-118)
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 10/04/18
One takeaway from last week’s loss was the fact that Louisville held Florida State to 76 yards on the ground. The Cardinals rank just 83rd in the nation in run defense but based on last week’s effort against the Seminoles, Louisville won’t be dominated by Georgia Tech on the ground. If the Cardinals can mitigate the scoring damage on the ground, this is their game to win because they have the more balanced offense.
Prediction: Louisville +4.5
Louisville ranks 71st in the league in defense, allowing 26.0 points per game while Georgia Tech is even ranked lower at 83rd while giving up 27.8 points per game so this is a game where defense won’t be the calling card.
Georgia Tech vs Louisville 10/5/18
Over/Under Odds: Over 58.5 -115, Under 58.5 -105
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 10/04/18
But the total has gone under in seven out of the last nine games played by Louisville and under in four out of their last five games at home. Only one in the five games played by the Cardinals this season hard breached the 58 point total. On the other hand, three games played by Georgia Tech eclipsed the 58 total points mark.
I’m predicting the Cardinals to win so the best bet on Louisville is the Moneyline odds where they are underdogs at +165. If you’re not as sure as I am, better take the Spread Odds where the Cardinals are a +4.5. If they won’t win this game outright, they should get the victory ATS.
Prediction: Under 58.5
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