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The Georgia State Panthers and the Arkansas State Red Wolves square off in a Sun Belt Conference showdown at the Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Arkansas on Thursday 10/18/18.
The Panthers are coming off a bye week after falling to Troy 20-37 the other week while the Red Wolves are fresh off a 9-35 home loss against Appalachian State last week,
Panthers Pathetic Defense
Georgia State is 1-4 on the current season and their poor showing can be attributed to pathetic defense. The Panthers allow nearly 500 yards of offense per game, including 244.2 yards on the ground per outing. They have given up 26 touchdowns on the season and they allow opponents to convert on 44% of their third downs and 69% of their fourth downs. Worse, opponents score 87% of the time in the red zone against the Panthers defense.
In their last game, the Panthers allowed Troy to earn 557 yards of offense including a monster 337 yards on the ground. To date, the Panthers run defense ranks 124th in the nation while they give up 34.2 points per game, 107th in the league. Overall the Panthers defense ranks 119th in total defense. They could be in for a long night against Arkansas State.
Georgia State vs Arkansas State 10/18/18
Moneyline Odds: Georgia State +445, Arkansas State -550
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 10/16/18
Red Wolves Better Than Record
Before the season began, Arkansas State was one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt conference. But the Red Wolves are 0-2 in conference play and just 3-3 overall. But if you take a look at their 2018 resume, this Red Wolves team may be better than their current record. They’ve played Tulsa, UNLV, Alabama and Appalachian State and are still a .500 team.
Quarterback Justice Hansen is probably the best in the league and against the 99th ranked pass defense, he might be in for a big night. With the Panthers run defense very horrible, expect the balanced Arkansas State running game to get into the red zone comfortably. And with the Red Wolves converting 16 of 28 red zone possessions, this game is for Arkansas State to win.
Who Wins?
The Red Wolves are obviously better than what their 3-3 record suggests. They have struggled in league play but their offense can explode in this game against a very poor defensive team in Georgia State. QB Hansen should have a good game moving the ball against the Georgia State defense. Likewise, the Panthers don’t have a good running game so the Arkansas State defense should have more breathing room here.
Against a Georgia State team that plays poor defense and has average offense, look for the Arkansas State Red Wolves to get their first conference win at home and look for them to get it rather easily.
We’re picking Arkansas State to beat Georgia State on 10/18/18. At -550, I find the Red Wolves a little bit expensive so let’s check on the other bets to make for this game and see if we can find bets with better yield.
Other Bets To Make
Georgia State is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road. On the other hand, Arkansas State has likewise struggled versus the spread as they are only 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games in their home field.
Looking further at trends though, we found out that Arkansas State is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in the month of October, 7-3 ATS at home against an opponent with a losing record and 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 conference games. For whatever these are worth, the trends point to Arkansas State.
Georgia State vs Arkansas State 10/18/18
Spread Odds: Georgia State +14 (-110), Arkansas State -14 (-110)
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 10/16/18
As we said earlier, the Panthers have taken the last four meetings between these teams and their average winning margin during those four games is 18.25 points. In Georgia State’s four losses this season, the average losing margin is 26.75 points with no loss coming by less than 17 points. When Georgia State loses games, they lose them big time.
Prediction: Arkansas State -14
The total has gone over in 4 out of the last 6 games played by the Panthers. On the other hand, the total has gone under in 4 out of the last 5 games played by the Red Wolves.
Georgia State vs Arkansas State 10/18/18
Over/Under Odds: Over 56.5 -115, Under 56.5 -105
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 10/16/18
Arkansas State averages just 23.5 points per game but against the horrible defense of Georgia State, they should be able to score more than that. The Red Wolves have averaged 34.67 points per game during their wins and have scored no less than 27 points in any of their victories. On the other hand, they have given up an average of 34.67 points per game thru six games. So while we expect the Red Wolves to score points, we’re not anticipating a lock down defensive effort from them as well.
These teams have combined to score 64.75 points in their last four meetings with 48 their lowest combined score in those four games. This one should be no different. Both teams should be able to score almost at will, with the Red Wolves eventually ending up with more points.
Prediction: Over 56.5
The best value bet here if you’re betting for Arkansas State is the spread odds which is currently at -14 (-110). But while I think that the Red Wolves are going to win big and can cover the spread, I’m personally more comfortable with the Over 56.5 at -115 because I haven’t seen either team play good defense all season long.
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