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A titanic battle between two Top 10 teams in college football happens on Saturday, 10/27/18 as the 9th ranked Florida Gators take on the #7 Georgia Bulldogs at the TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida.
Florida has won five consecutive games after a September 9 loss to Kentucky. Meanwhile, Georgia is coming off their first defeat of the season, a 16-36 drubbing at the hands of LSU last October 13.
Gators Gone Hot
In week 2, it appeared that the Dan Mullen era would be off to a rough start after the Gators lost to Kentucky for the first time in 31 years. But since then, the Gators have gone hot, winning five straight games, including three road victories against SEC teams, to improve to 6-1 on the season.
Florida vs Georgia 10/27/18
Moneyline Odds: Florida +225, Georgia -265
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 10/24/18
First Defeat Of The Season
The Georgia Bulldogs were on a roll, scoring at least 40 points in five of their six wins, but a trip to LSU in their last outing gave them their first taste of defeat this season. Before LSU, no opponent had even challenged Georgia but not only did LSU beat them, the Tigers beat them up 36-16. Having faltered in their biggest test to date, the Bulldogs hope to bounce back with a win against a fellow Top 10 team in the Gators.
Who Wins?
The Bulldogs lead the all-time series 50-43-1 but last season’s 42-7 win over Florida snapped a three game losing skid to the Gators. Florida is 5-0 SU in their last five games while Georgia is 20-3 SU in their last 23 games. But the Gators are 14-6 SU in their last 20 when playing the Georgia Bulldogs. If we filter the head to head matchup, Florida is 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games against Georgia.
Not only do I like the fact that the trends favor Florida here, I think that they have a big shot at beating Georgia on Saturday. The Bulldogs got exposed against LSU, failing in their first big test of the season. Also, there may be a quarterback issue at Georgia with Fromm possibly competing with freshman Justin Fields for the starting job especially coming off a poor outing.
I fancy that this game will be played in Jacksonville because I know that the Gators are raring to get revenge after losing by 35 points here last year. You bet Dan Mullen, who wasn’t in Florida last year, is going to remind them of that game. There are plenty going for them and I’m going to back the Gators here.
We’re picking the Florida Gators to beat the Georgia Bulldogs on 10/27/18.
Other Bets To Make
Florida is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games and 4-0 ATS after an ATS win. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games played and 5-0 ATS after gaining 450 total yards in their previous game. Georgia is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after a bye week and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Florida. The Gators are 12-7-1 in their last 20 games against the Bulldogs.
Florida vs Georgia 10/27/18
Spread Odds: Florida +6.5 (-105), Georgia -6.5 (-115)
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 10/24/18
These are two of the best defensive teams in the country with Florida ranked at #15 in points allowed at 16.6 and Georgia at 13th with their 16.3 points per game given up. Florida has won its last five games by an average winning margin of 17.8 points. Having said that, I expect this to be a low scoring and close football game so I’m taking Florida and the plus points here for added measure.
Prediction: Florida +6.
The total has gone under in five out of the last 7 meetings between these two teams, with an average combined score of 40.57 points. Florida’s games have an average combined score of 49.86 points while Georgia’s games this season have seen an average combined score of 55.29.
Florida vs Georgia 10/27/18
Over/Under Odds: Over 52 -110, Under 52 -110
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 10/24/18
No question that both teams can put up the points on the board but this match-up has been a low scoring one, historically. I’m not sure whether it’s because of the rivalry or it’s because both teams put a premium on defense. It could be both but regardless, I like the under here because of these are Top 20 defenses this season.
Prediction: Under 52
Some if not many of you may not agree with picking Florida as the outright winner here and I don’t blame you. In that case, you might as well take the Gators at the +6.5 point spread because I don’t think there will be a repeat of last year’s 35 point blowout. Not with the both teams have been playing defense.
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