Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers 11/10/2022 Odds and Prediction

Week 10 of the 2022 NFL season gets underway with a battle between NFC South teams as the Atlanta Falcons visit the Carolina Panthers on Thursday Night Football.

The Falcons are coming off a 20-17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in a home game where they were +2.5 point underdogs. Atlanta is 4-5 SU and is the surprise co-division leader in the NFC South along with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Falcons head to this game having split their last four games played.

The Panthers are still licking their wounds after the Cincinnati Bengals massacred them 42-21 last Sunday afternoon. Carolina was unable to cover as they were 7.5-point underdogs in that game. At 2-7 SU, the Panthers are 4th in the latest NFC South division leaderboard.

Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons looked like they were gonna pull off the home win the last time out but the LA Chargers rallied to literally take the victory on the game’s final play. The Falcons led 10-0 after the first period but ended up losing 20-17.

Atlanta is 30th in passing offense at 157.2 yards per game this season while they are 4th in rushing at 162.9 yards per contest. They are 9th in scoring at 24.1 points per game but are just 26th with 25 points per game conceded.

Marcus Mariota has thrown for 1,561 passing yards with 10 TDs and 6 INTs. He has been sacked 21 times for a total of 146 yards lost. Mariota has also rushed for 304 yards with three rush TDs. Cordrarrelle Patterson has rushed for 384 yards on 71 carries with 5 scores. Rookie Allgeier has 423 rushing yards on 94 carries. Drake London leads the team with 369 receiving yards with 2 TD grabs on 22 receptions.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers found themselves in the basement of the NFC South after a 42-21 drubbing at the hands of the Cincinnati Bengals. The blowout loss led to a pair of pink slips issued to cornerback coach Evan Cooper and defensive line coach Paul Pasqualoni over the weekend. That makes the total number of Panthers coaches fired this season 3 with Matt Rhule getting the boot earlier this year.

Carolina is averaging 184.6 passing yards per game, 28th in the league. The Panthers are also 22nd in rushing offense at 105.3 yards per game. They are also rushing just 105.3 yards per game this season, 22nd overall. Carolina also ranks 23rd in scoring at 19.9 points per game scored this season. They are also 29th in scoring defense at 25.3 points per game allowed.

Baker Mayfield has thrown for 1,117 yards with six TD passes and 4 INTs while PJ Walker has 623 yards with 3 TDs and 3 INTs. Chuba Hubbard has 15 carries for 97 yards with 1 TD while D’Onta Freeman has 296 rushing yards on 60 carries with 3 TDs. DJ Moore leads the team with 35 catches for 449 yards with 3 TDs on the season.

Falcons vs Panthers SU Prediction

Atlanta Falcons SU trends:

• The Falcons are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games played overall.
• The Falcons are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games played on the road.
• The Falcons are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against the NFC.

Carolina Panthers SU trends:

• The Panthers are 2-14 SU in their last 16 games played overall.
• The Panthers are 2-3 SU in 5 home games played this season.
• The Panthers are 2-19 SU in their last 21 games played against the NFC Conference.
• The Panthers are 5-14 SU in their last 19 games played against the NFC South Division.

The Falcons’ potent running attack got even better when Cordadelle Patterson returned from injury. After missing four games for Atlanta, Patterson rushed for two TDs as the Falcons while rookie Tyler Allgeier added a career-high 99 yards on 10 carries.

Atlanta gained a total of 201 yards on the ground, the third time this season that the Falcons have rushed for 200+ yards. However, their lack of a downfield passing game has been their problem since the start of the season. Marcus Mariota threw for only 129 passing yards with his longest connection a 24-yarder to Allgeier.

After allowing a franchise-worst 35 points in the first half against the Cincinnati Bengals last week, the Panthers fired cornerback coach Evan Cooper and defensive line coach Paul Pasqualoni after Sunday’s lopsided loss. Those firings came after the team had already sacked head coach Matt Rhule earlier this season.

It will be interesting who starts at quarterback for the Panthers. PJ Walker was pulled out of the game against the Bengals and Week 1 starter Baker Mayfield led the Panthers to 3 TDs in the second half. Then there is Sam Darnold who could also possibly get the call to open behind center on Thursday.

Before last week, the Panthers were 2-0 SU and ATS under interim coach Steve Wilks. If there’s still some pride left in the team, we should see them give out an inspired effort after last weekend’s firings.

Mariota has struggled this season but his best game this season was two weeks ago when he threw for 253 yards against this same Panthers defense. Meanwhile, Patterson and Allgeier should have good games against a Carolina define that gave up 5 TDs to Joe Mixon last week. I’ll take Mariota’s struggles over the changes in Carolina.

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons

Falcons vs Panthers ATS Prediction

The Falcons are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played against the Panthers. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Carolina.

Atlanta Falcons ATS trends:

• The Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the NFC.
• The Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Falcons are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• The Falcons are 13-6 ATS against a team with a losing record.
• The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
• The Falcons are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss.

Carolina Panthers ATS trends:

• The Panthers are 5-18 ATS in their last 23 games overall.
• The Panthers are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 home games.
• The Panthers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.
• The Panthers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The Panthers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Panthers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 versus the NFC.
• The Panthers are 8-24 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• The Panthers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight-up loss of more than 14 points.
• The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
• The Panthers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.
• The Panthers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
• The Panthers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• The Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against an opponent with a losing home record. Despite where they currently stand, they still have winnable games against the Washington Commanders and Pittsburgh Steelers in the coming weeks. The Falcons also will face Tampa Bay in their final regular season game so it’s not yet over for them.

They will also have Patterson back on Thursday and he should make the Falcons’ rushing attack even better. Patterson played in a limited capacity against LA so that means he should be able to play on a short week.

Overall, the Falcons have four players who have rushed for 250 or more yards this season. No other team in the NFL currently has such rushers. They are facing a Carolina team that has one of the worst run defenses in football. I’m going to go with the Falcons here too.

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons -3

Falcons vs Panthers Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in 13 out of the last 19 games played between these two teams. The under is 15-5-2 in the last 22 meetings in Carolina.

Atlanta Falcons over/under trends:

• The under is 6-0 in the Falcons’ last 6 Thursday games.
• The under is 7-0 in the Falcons’ last 7 games in Week 10.
• The under is 4-1 in the Falcons’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 33-12 in the Falcons’ last 45 games in November.
• The under is 5-2 in the Falcons’ last 7 games following an ATS loss.
• The over is 4-1 in the Falcons’ last 5 games following a straight-up loss.
• The over is 4-1 in the Falcons’ last 5 against NFC South.
• The over is 11-4-1 in the Falcons’ last 16 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The over is 5-2 in the Falcons’ last 7 versus the NFC.

Carolina Panthers over/under trends:

• The over is 4-0 in the Panthers’ last 4 games in November.
• The over is 4-0 in the Panthers’ last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• The over is 4-1 in the Panthers’ last 5 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Panthers’ last 5 games in Week 10.
• Over is 7-2 in the Panthers’ last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Panthers’ last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The under is 9-3 in the Panthers’ last 12 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 8-3 in the Panthers’ last 11 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The under is 10-4 in the Panthers’ last 14 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 5-2 in the Panthers’ last 7 games following a straight-up loss of more than 14 points.
• The under is 5-2 in the Panthers’ last 7 against the NFC.
• The under is 7-3 in the Panthers’ last 10 versus the NFC South.

These teams combined for 71 points two weeks ago, which caused the total to be bumped from 41.5 to 44 points. That marked the second consecutive head-to-head meeting where these teams went over the total. However, prior to those two games, they went under five times in six matchups.

The Falcons are going to bleed the clock with their rushing attack. Atlanta is also going to take advantage of Carolina’s poor rush define so we should see this game getting dragged to the ground. Add the fact that the Panther’s QB situation looks a little messy right now, I’m not expecting a big scoring output from the Panthers. With that, the Falcons also don’t team too many scores to win this game. They just have to take care of the football and utilize their rushing attack.

Prediction: Under 44

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