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The Atlanta Falcons travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers in the Week 4 installment of Monday Night Football.
Week 4 looks too early for a team to be in a must-win situation but that’s what the Falcons are probably facing after an 0-3 start. Atlanta has blown two fourth-quarter leads in the last two weeks and they head to Green Bay as +6.5 point favorites. On the other hand, the Packers head to this contest undefeated after three weeks. The Packers are the top-scoring team in the early part of the league and are expected to have a field day against an Atlanta defense that is allowing 350.3 yards through the air.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are off to a rough start to their season and they are now 0-3 after blowing double-digit fourth-quarter leads in their last two games. Atlanta has also lost three games by an aggregate losing margin of 12 points so, it’s not that the Falcons have looked very bad this year. It’s just that they need to figure out how to close out games and not cough up fourth-quarter leads.
Matt Ryan is having a fine start with 961 passing yards on 80-128 passing with seven touchdowns and only two interceptions. The Falcons have four receivers who have caught more than 100 yards this early. Calvin Ridley leads the team with 349 yards with four touchdown grabs while catching 21 of 35 targets. Todd Gurley has rushed for 197 yards on 49 carries with two touchdowns while Atlanta’s rushing game averages 109 ground yards per contest.
The Atlanta defense is allowing 36 points per game this season and is conceding 362 passing yards and 113 rushing yards per contest. They have forced six sacks and have two interceptions this season.
Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers are off to a hot start this year. Green Bay won a tense shootout with the Minnesota Vikings on opening week 43-34 and had an easy 42-21 victory over the Detroit Lions in Week 2. Last week, the Packers came up with another good NFC win against the New Orleans Saints 37-30 to move to 3-0 on the season.
Green Bay is averaging 295.7 passing yards per game and Aaron Rodgers has been exceptional with 887 passing yards on 71-106 passing. Rodgers has thrown nine touchdowns without an interception and has scrambled for 26 yards this season. Allen Lazard leads the receiving corps with 13 catches for 254 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has caught 8 passes for 165 yards while Davante Adams, who is questionable for this game, has 147 catches for 192 yards and two scores. Aaron Jones has rushed for 303 yards on 50 carries. Jones has four rushing touchdowns and has caught 95 yards with one touchdown.
The Green Bay defense is allowing opponents to throw for 263 yards and rush for another 115 yards. They are giving up an average of 28 points per game while recording eight sacks and two interceptions. The Packers’ defense also has one pick-six this season.
Who Wins?
The Falcons are 0-3 SU in three games this season. The Falcons are 1-4 SU in their last five games played against the NFC North, and 1-4 SU in their last five games played in October. The Packers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played. Green Bay is 7-0 SU in their last seven games played at home and 5-1 SU in their last six October games. Head to head, the Falcons are 3-1 SU in their last four games played against the Packers.
The Packers are red hot right now with their 3-0 start. They are battling the Seahawks for the best offense in the league but when it comes to putting points on the scoreboard, Green Bay is on top of the heap. There were rumors that Aaron Rodgers might be on the downside of the hill this season but he’s quickly put those talks to rest by averaging 295.7 passing yards per game with nine touchdowns and no interceptions.
If this game were good for three quarters only, I would be thinking twice about taking the plus money on Atlanta given that Green Bay’s secondary isn’t too impressive. However, the Falcons have been unpredictable in fourth quarters and they have coughed up big leads this season. I think that Atlanta has the offense to stay with Green Bay but in the end, it’s going to be the steadier team that wins. I will pick the Packers to win a back and forth contest.
Prediction: Green Bay Packers
Other Bets To Make
Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games played on the road. Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last five games played. The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five Week 4 games. Head to head, the Falcons are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Packers. Atlanta is also 6-1 ATS in its last seven games played at Lambeau Field.
Falcons
+6.5 (-106)
Packers
-6.5 (-114)
Odds from BetOnline as of 10/05/2020
I have no doubt that we will see a shootout on Monday with the number one and number six top-scoring teams in the league. Sure, the Falcons are 0-3 but they have lost those three games by a combined 12 points. I like the tandem of Ryan and Ridley to have a big game against a soft secondary of Green Bay. I don’t think that the Falcons will have another terrible fourth quarter on Monday. They are a very gifted offensive team and I think this will be a back and forth game. Green Bay wins but barely. Give me the underdogs and the plus points here.
Prediction: Atlanta Falcons +6.5
The total has gone over in six out of the last seven games played by the Falcons. Atlanta has seen the total go over in each of their last five games against the NFC. The total has gone over in each of the last five games played by the Packers. Green Bay has seen the total go over in their last five games against the NFC. The over is also 4-1 in their last five games played against the NFC South Division. Head to head, the total has gone over in seven out of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these two teams, including 5-0 in their last five encounters.
Over
56.5 (-115)
Under
56.5 (-105)
Odds from BetOnline as of 10/05/2020
I think that 56.5 is too low for these two teams. These are offenses who can get the job done and they are also teams who aren’t standout on defense, especially against the pass. We have two quarterbacks who can throw the football and I’m looking at a back and forth showdown between these two teams. Aaron Jones is going to slash Atlanta’s defense and Gurley could have a big night as well. These teams have combined to score 58.33 points per game in their last three meetings.
Prediction: Over 56.5
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