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Eleider Alvarez and Sergey Kovalev meet again on Saturday, February 1st at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas.
Eleider “Storm” Alvarez
Eleider Alvarez enters this fight with an unbeaten record of 23-0 with 12 knockouts. The 34 year old Montreal-based Colombian stands 6-0 and has a reach of 75.5 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. Alvarez began his career as a banger who always looked for the knockout. He’s progressed steadily and has become a decent boxer who fights with patience and with a game plan.
In his last fight, Alvarez snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. He was trailing on points when he knocked out Sergey Kovalev in the 7th round of their WBO light heavyweight championship bout last August 2018. Storm later admitted that his plan was to tire Kovalev and go on the offense in the second half of the bout. Some don’t buy that idea and feel he got lucky because Kovalev became complacent. Now Alvarez gets a chance to prove his win was no fluke.
Eleider Alvarez vs Sergey Kovalev 2
Moneyline Odds: Alvarez -159, Kovalev +139
Over/Under Odds: Over 9.5 -107, Under 9.5 -113
Odds from betonline.ag as of 1/31/19
Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev
Sergey Kovalev heads to Saturday’s bout with a record of 32-3-1 with 28 knockouts. The 35-year old Russian Krusher is also a 6-0 orthodox fighter but with a reach of 72.5 inches. Kovalev was one of the most feared punchers in the planet but after back to back losses to retired American boxer Andre Ward, Kovalev has lost his aura of invincibility. Krusher is a high IQ fighter, with one-punch knockout power and the ability to control fights with his boxing. The one big question about Kovalev is how much is left in the tank after three losses in his last five bouts. No questioning his abilities but at the age of 35, he is certainly on the decline and is no longer the fighter everyone else dreaded.
Krusher Was Cruising
Let’s face it, Sergey Kovalev was cruising to victory when he got caught with that big right hook to the head that knocked him down. Krusher never recovered from that knockdown as Storm unleashed a flurry of punches that led to two more knockdowns and the eventual TKO stoppage.
However, Alvarez was a tough customer. He walked through Kovalev’s bombs and countered with clean body punches. Alvarez also appeared to be quicker to the draw and was more accurate. According to Compubox, Kovalev landed 91 out of 339 punches or 27% while Alvarez connected on 73 out of 251 punches or 29%. Alvarez looked to tire Kovalev out before attacking him in the late stages of the fight. That ploy worked but I doubt if it happens again, if that’s what Alvarez intends to do again.
Who Wins?
Kovalev is a very smart fighter who can win fights by knockout or by outboxing his opponents. It just so happened that he became overconfident and let his guard down in the 7th round, thus giving Alvarez the opportunity to upset him. But now that Kovalev knows what he’s up against, I’m confident he will be able to adjust and beat Alvarez this time around.
I don’t think five months is going to change these two. I see the same fight being fought all over again except that this time, Kovalev is going to keep those hands up all the time. The only worry I have is that if Kovalev has grown old overnight. Krusher is already 35 and there is a chance we won’t see the same Kovalev again on Saturday night. But between that and Alvarez knocking out the Krusher again, I think the latter is more unlikely to happen.
I’m picking Sergey Kovalev to beat Eleider Alvarez by decision.
28 of Kovalev’s 32 wins have come by knockout with only two stoppages coming after round 7, both in round 8. Kovalev has fought past round 8 in only two fights, going 12 rounds against Isaac Chilemba and Andre Ward both in 2016. But Eleider Alvarez is a durable dude. He withstood a 4th round beating and took Kovalev’s best shots for six full rounds. I don’t see an early stoppage or one punch KO here from both sides and the best case scenario here for both would be a late stoppage perhaps due to fatigue or accumulation of blows. Either way, I like the over 9.5 rounds because Alvarez seems to take Kovalev’s power nicely. As for Kovalev, I don’t think he’ll get caught with his hands down this time around.
Prediction: Over 9.5 rounds
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