The Miami Dolphins look to win two in a row when they visit the Indianapolis Colts at the Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, November 10, 2019.
First Win of the Season
The Miami Dolphins scored an upset over the New York Jets last weekend to record their first win of the 2019 NFL season. With the victory, the Dolphins are no longer at the bottom of the team standings with that distinction now belonging to the still-winless Cincinnati Bengals.
Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 24 out of 38 passes while passing for 288 yards with three touchdowns against the Jets. Preston Williams caught five passes for 72 yards including two touchdown grabs. Fitzpatrick has thrown for 1,195 yards this season with 8 touchdowns and 7 interceptions while Williams has 32 catches for 328 yards with three touchdown catches.
Miami ranks 29th in passing with an average of 198.5 yards per game. They are 31st in rushing at 68 rushing yards per contest. The Dolphins are third from the bottom in scoring at 12.6 points per game while they are allowing their opponents to score 32.6 points per outing.
Odds were taken from BetOnline as of 11/06/19
Brissett’s Knee Sprain
The Indianapolis Colts saw their three-game winning streak halted last week by the Pittsburgh Steelers 24-26. Veteran kicker Adam Vinatieri missed a late field goal that would have given Indianapolis the lead. But more than that, the Colts suffered a big blow after quarterback Jacoby Brissett left the game after throwing just five passes because of a knee sprain.
Brissett has stepped in nicely for the retired Andrew Luck. He has thrown for 1,649 passing yards with 14 touchdowns and just three interceptions on the season. If he is a no-go on Sunday, Brian Hoyer will get the nod for the Colts. Hoyer threw for 3 touchdowns and one interception against the Steelers.
Indianapolis is 23rd in the NFL in passing at 213.9 yards per contest. The Colts are 9th overall in rushing with an average of 129.8 rushing yards. They score an average of 22.8 points per game this season while allowing their opponents to produce 22.1 points per contest.
Miami is 1-10 SU in their last 10 games played. The Dolphins are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games played on the road. Indianapolis is 15-5 SU in their last 20 games played. The Colts are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played at home. Head to head, the Colts are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Dolphins and they are the heavy NFL betting favorites to win this contest.
The Miami Dolphins are coming off their first win of the season. The Dolphins pulled off an upset over the New York Jets to silence the talks about them going winless this season to get the #1 overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. Despite the win, there is no question that the Dolphins are still the worst team in the league this season.
The Colts have played well this season despite Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement. But this team has been hounded by injuries and the latest victim is quarterback Jacoby Brissett who suffered a sprained knee last week. He remains questionable but if he is unable to go, then it will be back up Brian Hoyer who will start for the home team.
But regardless of who will start at quarterback, Indianapolis will try to win this game with their defense and running game. Miami is the worst scoring team in the NFL and they allow the second-most rushing yards per game in the league this season. That said, look for Marlon Mack to get plenty of touches in this contest. I’m picking the Indianapolis Colts to defeat the Miami Dolphins.
Other Bets to Make
The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played. Miami is 2-1 ATS in three road games played this season. The Colts are 4-3-1 ATS in eight games played this season. Indianapolis is 2-2 ATS in four home games this season and 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the AFC East Division. Head to head, the Dolphins are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Colts.
Odds from BetOnline as of 11/06/19
The Dolphins have outscored the Colts by an average margin of 2.3 points per game in their last 10 meetings but Indianapolis has outscored Miami by an average of 1.67 points per game in their last three games played. Whether it’s Brissett or Colt Hoyer calling the plays for the Colts on Sunday, I think Miami’s offensive woes are too much even with a +10 spread. Only one of Miami’s seven losses have come via single digits and that loss was against the Redskins. Indianapolis should cover this spread.
Prediction: Colts -10
The total has gone under in five out of Miami’s last seven games played. The under is 2-1 in the Dolphins’ three road games played this season. The total has gone over in four out of the last six games played by the Colts. Indianapolis has seen the total go over in three out of their last four games played at home this season. The total has gone over in 14 out of the Colts’ last 20 Week 10 games played.
Odds from BetOnline as of 11/06/19
These teams have combined to score 43.9 points per game in their last 10 meetings and 41.67 points per game in their last three encounters. This is a Miami team that has struggled offensively this season. They will be on the road against an Indianapolis team that has a stout defense. I think the Colts are going to banner that defense to win this game for them.
Prediction: Under 44