The Miami Dolphins will make the trip to Florida to take on the defending Super Bowl champions Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Raymond James Stadium on Sunday.
Miami heads to Tampa Bay with a 1-3 record, one of three teams in the AFC East with the same record. The Dolphins defeated the New England Patriots in their opening game of the season but have lost three in a row since then. In their last game, the Dolphins were beaten 27-17 by an equally struggling Indianapolis Colts team.
Tampa Bay meanwhile, returns home after back-to-back road games. The Bucs won their season opener against the Cowboys and then blasted the Falcons in Week 2 at home. The Buccaneers then suffered their first loss of the season against the L.A. Rams two weeks ago but they bounced back to win a close game against Tom Brady’s former team the New England Patriots last weekend. Tampa is 3-1 on the season and top of the NFC South division.
The Dolphins suffered a third straight loss last week as they fell to the Indianapolis Colts 27-17. Jacoby Brissett threw for under 200 yards and Miami could not establish a running game to help him get going. The Dolphins rushed for only 35 total yards and were down 17-3 entering the fourth quarter. Miami’s defense also failed to stop Carson Wentz who completed 75% of his passes and Jonathan Taylor who rushed for over 100 yards with one rushing touchdown.
Miami’s offense has scored less than 20 points thrice in their first four games. Starting QB Tua Tagovailoa is suffering from broken ribs and is still on the injured list. Back-up Jacoby Brissett has struggled in Tagovailoa’s place and has not thrown for more than 220 passing yards in any game this season. Miami is also in the bottom five in rushing yards per game while their defense has the third-fewest sacks this season.
Odds from BetOnline as of 10/08/2021
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are home after three weeks. The Bucs played in a very high-profile game last week and barely walked away with a victory. Playing against an inspired New England team, the Bucs were able to steal one 19-17 behind a game-winning field goal by Ryan Succop. Tom Brady had his worst game of the season with only a 51.2% completion without a touchdown pass. Brady however passed for 265 yards and led the team to field goal possession in the closing moments of the game.
Leonard Fournette had his best game of the season with 91 yards on 20 carries and 47 receiving yards on three catches. Mike Evans led Tampa Bay with 75 receiving yards on seven catches but the injury-ravaged Tampa Bay defense allowed rookie QB, Mac Jones, to complete 77.5% of his passes for 275 passing yards. However, they were able to sack him four times and intercepted him once.
Miami is 1-4 SU in their last five games played. The Dolphins are 1-6 SU in their last seven games against the NFC South division. Tampa Bay is 11-1 SU in their last 12 games played. The Buccaneers are 5-0 SU in their last five games played at home. Head to head, the Buccaneers are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Dolphins. Tampa Bay is also 4-1 in their last five home games against the Dolphins.
After beating New England in a strong start to their season, things have fallen apart for the Dolphins who have lost three in a row heading to this game. Over their last three games, Miami has averaged only 15 points per game and that has been the main issue.
Meanwhile, the Bucs return home after a very challenging week where the national and even worldwide spotlight was on them. But, the Bucs will still be without Rob Gronkowski who is expected to miss more games with multiple cracked ribs and a punctured lung. Tampa Bay’s secondary is also ailing, which forced them to play Richard Sherman just days after they signed him.
But despite their injury woes, the Bucs still have more than enough to beat this Miami team. Tom Brady is expected to return to his previous form after a mentally draining game against the Patriots. With the Bucs playing at home, I expect their offense to return to almost normal and the Dolphins don’t have enough weapons to keep up with the Bucs.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Other Bets to Make
The Dolphins are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games played. Miami is 6-3 ATS in their last nine games played on the road, 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS loss, 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against an opponent with a winning record, 18-6 in their last 24 games as underdogs, 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games played on grass, and 5-2 in their last seven October games.
The Buccaneers are 1-3 ATS in their last four games played overall. Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in their last five games after an ATS loss, 5-1 ATS in their last five games played at home, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played on grass, 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after allowing 90 or fewer rushing yards per game in their previous outing, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game, and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Sunday games.
Head to head, the Bucs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games played against the Dolphins.
Odds from BetOnline as of 10/08/2021
The Bucs’ offense has looked much better at home. They scored 31 in week 1 and 48 in week 2 . Tom Brady has thrown for 9 touchdowns in two home games and only one in two road assignments. Brady will even get a bonus facing a Miami defense that has the third-fewest sacks in the league this season. With the Dolphins struggling with their pass rush, Brady should have all the time to throw on Sunday.
The Dolphins are also in the Bottom 6 in rush defense and with Leonard Fournette coming off his best game of the season, he’s going to be another problem for Miami. The Bucs also lead the league in rush defense while the Dolphins are in the bottom five in rushing offense.
Ten points is a lot to give away but the Buccaneers playing at home should do the trick.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10
The total has gone over in four out of the last six games played by the Dolphins. The over is 4-0 in their last four games against an opponent with a winning record, 7-1 in their last eight games after an ATS loss, 4-1 in their last five games after picking up less than 250 offensive yards in their previous game, 4-1 in their last five road games against an opponent with a winning home record, and 9-3 in their last 12 games after straight up loss.
The total has gone over in six out of the last nine games played by the Buccaneers. The over is 6-0 in their last six home games against an opponent with a losing road record, 6-1 in their last seven games played on grass, 5-1 in their last six games as betting favorite, 23-9 in their last 32 October games, 20-7 in their last 27 games against an opponent with a losing record, 4-1 ATS in their last five games after an ATS loss, and 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Head to head, the total has gone over in six out of the last seven games between these two teams.
Odds from BetOnline as of 10/08/2021
Miami’s offense will get a break here with Tampa Bay’s secondary injury-riddled. Without their top defensive players, the Dolphins should be able to get a decent amount of points on board. Meanwhile, Miami’s defense hasn’t been able to generate sacks or a consistent pass rush which should give Tom Brady enough room to operate.
The Bucs have more than enough playmakers to put up a high-scoring game against a defense that is mediocre at best. Miami is also able to put enough points to help the Bucks get the score over the posted total.
Prediction: Over 48