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The Denver Nuggets and L.A. Clippers play in a win-or-go-home Game 7 on Tuesday night in Orlando. After four games, it appeared that the Clippers had all but wrapped up the series. But what was once an easy series to win has become an all or nothing affair for Doc Rivers and his team. The Nuggets have shown tremendous resiliency in the last two games and they have come back to force a Game 7.
The Clippers are looking to advance to their first-ever conference finals while the Nuggets are aiming to become the first team to win two series in the same playoffs after trailing both 3-1. L.A. is 0-6 in series-clinching games when they’ve had the opportunity to advance to the conference finals.
Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets live to fight another day. After the Clippers took a 3-1 lead in their series, Denver has won back to back games and they have the opportunity to become the first team in NBA history to win two different series in the same playoff run after falling behind 3-1.
Nikola Jokic scored 34 points, grabbed 14 rebounds while issuing seven assists to lead the Nuggets in Game 6. The Joker made 4-6 from behind the three-point area and is shooting 46.3% from downtown in this series. Jamal Murray shot 9-13 from the field while scoring 21 points. Gary Harris also scored 16 points while rookie Michael Porter Jr. had another big game off the bench with 13 points.
In 13 playoff games, Jokic is averaging 26.6 points per game while also leading the team in rebounding at 9.9 boards per contest. Murray has also been key for the Nuggets and he leads the team in passing at 6.5 assists per game. The Nuggets shot 54.1% from the floor in Game 6 while also making 12-25 three-pointers and 19-27 free throws.
L.A. Clippers
The L.A. Clippers had three chances to advance to their first-ever Conference Finals. But after playing flat in Games 5 and 6, they are now down to their last chance at their best finish ever. The Clippers have outscored the Nuggets 119-91 in the first half of Games 5 and 6 but have been outscored 131-84 in the second half of both games and that has been the story of the last two games of this series.
In Game 6, the Clippers shot just 41% from the field, 37% from behind the three-point area, and 88.9% from the foul line. Paul George had a big night with 33 points while Kawhi Leonard added 25 points and 8 rebounds. Lou Williams led the Clippers bench with 14 points but the entire team went cold again after building a big lead.
Leonard is having an excellent series as he is averaging 29.6 points, 9.6 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 2.3 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game. He is leading the Clippers in all statistical categories and maybe overworked in this series. Paul George has played some good games but he has not been able to deliver on a consistent basis. The Clippers bench has some of the best substitutes in the league but Montrezl Harrell has scored a total of 11 points in the last two games.
Who Wins?
Denver is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. The Nuggets are 3-2 SU in their last five games played on the road. The L.A. Clippers are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. The Clippers are 4-2 SU in their last six games played on the road and 12-2 SU in their last 14 Tuesday games. Head to head, the Nuggets have won two out of their last three games against the Clippers. Denver is 6-12 SU in their last 18 road games against L.A.
The tide has been turned in this series and the pressure is now on the L..A. Clippers after wasting two chances to close out the series. The Clippers led big in both games but allowed Denver to come back and steal the game. L.A. has never made it past the second round in their franchise history so that adds up to the pressure here.
The Nuggets will head to this game brimming with confidence after staving off two elimination games against the odds on favorite to win the NBA title. I expect another strong effort from Jokic and Murray. If Michael Porter Jr. has a good game, Denver can keep up with the Clippers.
The Clippers though are still ultra-talented and they have Kawhi Leonard who’s a known killer in Game 7s. If Paul George has a solid game and their bench contributes, the Clippers should be good here. I don’t think it will be easy but L.A. has the bigger shot makers in this series. Expect one of those to come up with the big shots down the stretch.
Prediction: L.A. Clippers
Other Bets To Make
Denver is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played on the road, and 4-1 ATS in their last five games played against the Pacific Division. The L.A. Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games played. The Clippers are 3-3 ATS in their last six road games, 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Southwest Division, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games played in September. Head to head, Denver is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against L.A.
Clippers
-7 (-116)
Nuggets
+7 (-106)
Odds from BetOnline as of 09/14/2020
Four out of the six games in the series have been decided by nine or more points. But when you take a look at averages, the Clippers have outscored the Nuggets by only 1.7 points per game in their last 10 meetings and Denver has outscored L.A. by only 2.67 points per game in the last three games. This is a win or go home game and I expect a close contest. I still fancy the Clippers but they should win by five or fewer points. I won’t be surprised if this goes to the last play. I’ll take the plus points here.
Prediction: Nuggets +7
The total has gone under in six out of the last 10 games played by the Nuggets. The under is 6-1 in the last seven games of Denver against the Western Conference. The total has gone under in six out of the last seven games played by the Clippers. The under is also 4-2 in L.A.’s last six games played on the road, and the total has gone under in six out of the Clippers’ last seven games against the Western Conference.
Over
207 (-110)
Under
207 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 09/14/2020
The Nuggets showed against the Jazz that they can be a high-scoring team. However, they engaged the Jazz in a low-scoring Game 7 where the total was only 158 points. In this second-round series, the under is 5-0-1. However, the total has been below 210 points only one time in those six games. Denver has scored 111 points in Games 5 and 6 and the Clippers need to put up points on the board to win this game. I like these teams to hit at least 210 here. For as long as the total is below 210, I will go with the over.
Prediction: Over 207
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