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The Dallas Cowboys take on the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional round of the NFC playoffs on January 12, 2019, Saturday , at the Rams’ Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
Dallas Defense Doing Damage
When we talk about the Dallas Cowboys, we usually talk about their offensive players like Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper. If you watched the Cowboys’ wild card win over the Seahawks, you must know by now that it’s their defense that is doing most of the damage. Dallas held Seattle’s NFL best running game to just 73 rushing yards and Chris Carson to 20 yards on 13 carries.
The Dallas defense ranks 6th in the NFL in points allowed at 20.3 points and 7th in yards allowed per game at 329. They are also 5th in the league in rushing yards per game allowed at 94 per game and 13th in passing yards per game allowed at 234. The Cowboys’ defense has also forced 9 interceptions and 39 sacks this season.
Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Rams 1/12/19
Moneyline Odds: Cowboys +280, Rams -335
Odds from betonline.ag as of 1/10/19
Los Angeles Offense Is Pass Heavy
The Los Angeles Rams have one of the most talented running backs in the league in Todd Gurley II who ran for 1251 yards with 17 touchdowns on the season. However, when you break down the Rams’ plays this season, they ran more passing plays at 55% to 45% for running plays (568 passing plays vs 459 running plays).
Quarterback Jared Goff threw for 4,668 passing yards with 32 touchdowns and 12 interceptions this season. He and Gurley are mostly responsible for making the Rams the NFL’s second top scoring team at 32 points per game. Los Angeles has seven receivers with more than 100 receiving yards this season so that makes their offense hard to stop. Defensively though, it’s another story as the Rams rank 20th in scoring defense at 24 points allowed and 23rd in rushing yards per game allowed.
Who Wins?
We talked about the Rams having a pass-heavy offense well the Cowboys are 10-1 SU during games where their opponents had more pass attempts than rush attempts in the game. So while the Rams pose a different kind of challenge for the Cowboys than what they faced in the wild card game, the Rams offense may be tailor-made for the Dallas defense to stop.
Todd Gurley is listed as questionable so that’s going to be a big blow for the Rams. Even if Gurley plays, he may be playing on on leg only and may not be as effective and productive. If he doesn’t play, then the more the Rams will have to rely on Goff even more.That’s not just going to make them predictable, it’s also going to be a heavy burden for Goff who is already burdened with a pass-heavy offense.
I think the Cowboys are going to keep this game close and with their defense, they are going to give themselves a good chance of winning this game outright. Sure, the Rams have lost just once at home this season but I’d like to take my chance on the Cowboys. They are coming off a big win over the Seahawks and will be playing with plenty of confidence.
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys
Other Bets To Make
Dallas is 9-7-1 ATS on the season. The Cowboys are 4-4 ATS on the road this season. Los Angeles is 7-7-2 ATS this season. The Rams are 3-3-2 ATS at home this season. Head to head, the Cowboys are 5-3 SU and 5-3 ATS in their last eight games against the Rams.
Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Rams 1/12/19
Spread Odds: Cowboys +7 (-101), Rams -7 (-119)
Odds from betonline.ag as of 1/10/19
Dallas is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games against the NFC. The Cowboys are also 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as betting underdogs. The Rams are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games, 1-4 ATS in their last five home playoff games and 1-5 ATS in their last six January games. If this line get below a touchdown, I’ll think about going with the Rams but at +7 or more, I’m taking my plus points and riding with the Cowboys.
Prediction: Cowboys +7
The under was 9-8 in Dallas’ 17 games played this season. The under also hit in six out of the eight road games played by the Cowboys. The under is 8-7-1 during the Rams’ regular season. Head to head, the under is 5-3 in their last 8 meetings.
Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Rams 1/12/19
Over/Under Odds: Over 49 -110, Under 49 -110
Odds from betonline.ag as of 1/10/19
10 out of the last dozen road games played by the Dallas Cowboys went under the total with an average combined score of 36.0. Dallas is going to run the football in order to win this game. With them grinding out the time of possession, this should be a low scoring game.
Prediction: Under 49
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