MENU
The Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons fight for their playoff lives on Sunday 11/18/18 at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
With the race for the NFC’s wildcard spots very tight, these two 4-5 teams can no longer afford to lose games, not particularly against each other. The Cowboys are coming off a win over the Eagles on National TV while the Falcons had their three game win streak snapped by the Browns.
The Amari Impact
The Dallas Cowboys emerged victorious over the defending Super Bowl Champions Eagles last week and newcomer Amari Cooper made an impact with six catches for 75 yards in that game. Cooper, who was traded from Oakland last October 22 for a first round pick, has a total of 11 catches on 18 targets for a total of 133 receiving yards and one touchdown in two games played.
Quarterback Dak Prescott is still struggling with consistency issues and has thrown for a total of 1,930 yards with 5 interceptions and has 8 fumbles this season. The Cowboys’ offense lives and dies with running back Ezekiel Elliott who has ran for 831 yards on the ground while scoring 4 rushing touchdowns. Elliott also has 262 receiving yards and has caught two passing touchdowns this season.
Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons 11/18/18
Moneyline Odds: Cowboys +152, Falcons -172
Odds from betonline.ag as of 11/16/18
Efficient Matt Ryan
The Falcons looked like they were out of the playoff race early when they opened the season a poor 1-4. But with their backs against the proverbial wall, they turned things around with three straight wins. However, the Falcons saw their winning run snapped last week by the Browns and now they are back to fighting for their playoff life on Sunday against the Cowboys.
For all the Falcons’ struggles this season, Matt Ryan has been the one consistent force on the team. Ryan was 38-52 for 330 yards and a couple of scores during their loss to the Browns. For the season, Ryan has thrown a total of 3,015 yards (3rd in the NFL) with 21 touchdowns passes (4th in the NFL) and has a passer rating of 113.2 (4th in the NFL).
Who Wins?
The Cowboys are 2-3 SU in their last 5 games played and 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played on the road. The Falcons are 3-2 SU in their last 5 games overall and 5-2 SU in their last 7 home games. Head to head, Atlanta is 5-2 SU in their last seven games against Dallas and 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing the Cowboys in Atlanta.
These are two 4-5 teams but what makes me like Atlanta in this matchup isn’t only the fact that they are 3-2 SU at home this season and the knowledge that the Cowboys are 1-4 SU on the road this year but also because Atlanta has been dominant in their home field against conference opponents. The Falcons are 15-2 SU and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 conference home games.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys haven’t performed well after a victory as Dallas is 1-4 ATS and 0-5 SU in their last five games following a straight up win and this gives me more confidence in the Falcons. I think between the Falcons bouncing back and the Cowboys winning two in a row, I’ll bet on the former.
The Falcons’ biggest weakness has been their pass defense but with Dallas 28th in the league in passing offense, they aren’t going to take advantage of that. The Falcons were in trouble when they opened the season at 1-4 but then they got three wins in a row. Now they may be fighting for playoff life and trouble seems to be in the horizon again. But then they have played better when they are desperate and that may be the case here.
We’re picking the Atlanta Falcons to beat the Dallas Cowboys on 11/18/18.
Other Bets To Make
The Cowboys are 4-5 ATS in nine games played this season and 2-3 ATS in their five road games played so far in this campaign. The Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games played but are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Cowboys and 4-2 ATS in their last six games when playing Dallas in Atlanta.
Dallas is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games played after an SU win, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing their opponents to rack up more than 350 yards in their previous game but 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games played on grass. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 November games, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 yards in their previous outing, 1-5 ATS in their last Week 11 games and 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with losing records.
Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons 11/18/18
Spread Odds: Cowboys +3.5 (-120), Falcons -3.5 (+100)
Odds from betonline.ag as of 11/16/18
The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five head to head meetings and the Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Unless Prescott can take advantage of Atlanta’s poor pass defense and give more breathing space for Elliott to work with against a solid Atlanta run defense, the Falcons should be able to win this game and cover the 3.5 spread.
Prediction: Falcons -3.5
The over is 4-2 in Dallas’ last six games played but the under is 6-2 in the Cowboys’ last 8 road games. The total has gone over in 6 out of the last 8 games played by the Falcons and the total has also gone over in 4 out of their last 5 home games. Head to head, the total is 4-2 in the last 6 meetings between these teams but the under is 5-1 in the last six games between these teams in Atlanta.
Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons 11/18/18
Over/Under Odds: Over 48 -120, Under 48 +102
Odds from betonline.ag as of 11/16/18
The over is 6-2 in Atlanta’s last eight games with an average combined score of 58.5 points. Although Dallas is having troubles throwing the ball, they should be able to get decent points on the board because the Falcons give up the third most passing yards in the league and have allowed the third most touchdowns in the NFL as well. Meanwhile, the Falcons rank 8th in entire NFL in scoring offense at 27.1 points per game. Matt Ryan leads the league in passing yards per game and is third in completion percentage.
Prediction: Over 48
Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks 04/19/2023 NBA Odds and Prediction
New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers 04/17/2023 MLB Preview and Prediction
Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees 04/14/2023 MLB Preview and Prediction
OKC Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans 04/12/2023 NBA Play-in Tournament Odds and Prediction
