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The defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs hit the road and take on the Buffalo Bills on Monday.
The Chiefs were 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games before losing to the Raiders as 10.5 home favorites. The loss was their first since November 10, 2019, or week 10 of the 2019 season. Kansas City will try to get back on track and win on the road against a Buffalo team that also suffered their first loss of the season in their last game.
Buffalo lost as a three-point home favorite against the Tennessee Titans last Tuesday. The game was played last Tuesday after it was rescheduled to due COVID-19 issues. This game marks the first meeting between these teams since 2017 when Buffalo defeated Kansas City 16-10.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs entered last week’s game with 13 games winning streak. The Chiefs had not lost since week 10 of the previous season and looked on their way to another routine victory after taking a double-digit lead in the first half. But the Raiders fought back and dealt the Chiefs a 40-32 win.
Kansas City was outgained 491-413 in total yards against Las Vegas. Mahomes completed 22 of 43 passes for 340 passing yards with two touchdowns and one interception while also rushing for 21 yards with one rushing touchdown. Mahomes has passed for 1,474 yards with 13 scores this season. He has thrown at least two scores in seven out of his last eight games played.
Tight end Travis Kelce has 32 catches for 405 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns while Tyreek Hill has 364 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 35 catches. Meanwhile, rookie running back Clyde Helaire-Edwards leads the ground attack with 344 rushing yards on 4.2 yards per carry.
Anthony Hitchens leads the team with 37 tackles while defensive tackle Chris Jones paces the team with 3.5 sacks on the season. L’Jarius Sneed has two interceptions for the Kansas City defense. Hitchens however, is questionable for Monday’s game with a hand injury.
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills also suffered their first loss of the season last week. Buffalo held the Tennessee Titans to an early 7-7 tie before Tennessee outscored them 35-9 after the opening quarter. Turnovers doomed Buffalo as they gave the ball away three times. Josh Allen threw two interceptions while Andre Roberts dropped the ball on a lost fumble. The Bills outgained the Titans 370-334 in total yards but as stated earlier, turnovers cost them the game.
Allen completed 26 of 41 passes for 263 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Despite the loss, Allen has been impressive this season with 14 touchdowns while ranking 4th in the NFL with 425 yards per game. Stefon Digs leads the team with 36 catches for 509 yards on the season. Devin Singletary leads the team with 238 rushing yards on 3.9 yards per carry.
The Bills rank 20th in defense at 381.1 yards per game allowed. They rank 27th against the pass at 280.3 yards per game. Jordan Poyer leads the Buffalo defense with 42 tackles. Mario Addison has two sacks while Matt Milano has recorded one interception for the Bills.
Who Wins?
Kansas City is 13-1 SU in their last 14 games played. The Chiefs are 8-1 SU in their last nine games played on the road, and 11-1 SU in their last 12 games played against the AFC. Buffalo is 4-1 SU in their last five games played. The Bills are 1-4 SU in their last five games played in week 6, and 1-7 SU in their last eight Monday games. Head to head, the Bills are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Chiefs. However, the Chiefs are 3-1 in their last four encounters.
The Chiefs took a 21-10 lead in the second quarter of their game against the Raiders but they allowed Las Vegas to put together a 30-3 run that enabled the Raiders to pull off the 40-32 upset. KC lost Sammy Watkins to injury and will be out for this Monday game against the Bills. Mahomes had his worst game of the season but he still picked up 340 passing yards, with two touchdowns, and one rushing touchdown. But the Las Vegas defense limited him to 51.2% completion with three sacks and a turnover. Mahomes should use this game to refocus.
Josh Allen is also coming off his worst outing of the season. Allen threw season lows in passing yards (263) and completion percentage (63.4%) during their 42-16 loss to the Titans. Buffalo also committed three turnovers while being unable to force one on the other end of the field. The Bills’ offense has been able to hide their defensive deficiencies but after only scoring 16 the last time out, their flaws on defense looked obvious. Buffalo ranks 16th in the NFL in total defense, allowing 371.8 yards per contest, and 21st in scoring defense at 28.4 points per game allowed.
You can make a good case for the over in this game. Both quarterbacks are having a fantastic season and their offenses have been impressive. However, if you want me to pick a winner here, I would go with Kansas City because I don’t trust Buffalo’s defense.
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs
Other Bets To Make
The Chiefs are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games played. Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played against the AFC East, and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games played in October. Buffalo is 3-2 ATS in their five games played this season, 2-0 ATS in two home games played this season, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played against the AFC West. Head to head, the Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Chiefs. But Kansas City has covered the spread in two out of their last three meetings.
Chiefs
-5.5 (-110)
Bills
+5.5 (-110)
Odds from MyBookie as of 10/19/2020
Buffalo has the 6th worst passing defense in the league and that’s not good when you’re facing Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City has lost twice against the spread since November 2019. Kansas City is 13-1 SU in their last 14 games and 12 of those wins were by at least seven points. Kansas City has two extra days to prepare for this.
Prediction: Chiefs -5.5
The total has gone under in four out of the last six games played by the Chiefs. The under is 0-2 in Kansas City’s two road games played this season. The total has gone over in each of the last five games played by the Bills. Buffalo has seen the total go under in four out of their last six games played at home. Head to head, the total has gone under in 11 out of the last 14 meetings between these two teams. The under is also 4-1 in the last five games between these two teams.
Over
56 (-110)
Under
56 (-110)
Odds from MyBookie as of 10/19/2020
We have a high total here but these are two offenses that have been impressive to start the year. Mahomes and Allen are in the Top 4 when it comes to producing yardage. Kansas City will be without its leading tackler here and both teams are coming off games where they allowed 40 points apiece. I’m expecting a shootout from these teams.
Prediction: Over 56
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