Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 1 NBA Betting Preview

The Boston Celtics head to the FTX Arena to take on the Miami Heat in Game 1 of the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals on Tuesday night.

Boston outlasted the defending champions Milwaukee Bucks in Game 7 of their second-round series on Saturday night to advance to their 4th Conference Finals in the last six years. Meanwhile, the Heat booked their ticket to the East Finals earlier, eliminating the Philadelphia 76ers in six games for their second trip to the NBA Final Four in the last three seasons.

This will mark the 5th meeting between these two franchises in the playoffs and the third time in the Conference Finals. Boston beat Miami in a first-round series in 2010 while the Heat defeated the Celtics in a second-round series in 2011. Miami won their previous two Conference Finals meetings in 2012 and 2018.

Boston Celtics

The Celtics took the hard route to the Eastern Conference Finals as they needed the full seven-game route to advance. They were, however, up against the defending champions Milwaukee Bucks who, despite playing without All-Star forward Khris Middleton, were tough as nails with Giannis Antetokounmpo having a historic playoffs.

Despite the challenge, the Celtics were able to show impressive poise as they came back from a 3-2 deficit to win the series. Boston needed to win Game 6 on the road and then go home to the TD Garden to beat the Bucks a second time. The Celtics played well on the road in that series, winning two of three games at the Fiserv Forum.

Boston blew out Milwaukee in Game 7 with a barrage of three-pointers. The Celtics hit a total of 22 three-pointers including seven from Grant Williams who not only defended Giannis Antetokounmpo better than anyone had this season but also came up with big scoring games in the series. He will be a pivotal player here as he will help open the floor up for Tatum, Brown, and Smart to create plays if he continues to knock down his three-pointers.

Miami Heat

The Heat meanwhile, did not get as much challenge from a Sixers team that played without an injured Joel Embiid at the start and played against a James Harden that looked like the shadow of his former MVP self. Still, the Sixers took two games in the series but in the end, Jimmy Butler proved to be too much of a problem for them.

Miami has emerged as the top defensive team in the playoffs as they have held their opponents to only 97.5 points per game in the postseason and are the only team to allow fewer than 100 PPG in the current playoffs. The Heat held the Sixers to 99 or fewer points four times in six games, going 3-1 SU in those games.

Max Strus came up big for the Heat in Games 5 and 6 as he average 19.5 points per game in both wins. Meanwhile, Gabe Vincent averaged 11 points per game in the final two games of the series, and Victor Oladipo put up 10.3 points per game in the series to help make up for Kyle Lowry who scored just a total of six points in two games as he is bothered by a hamstring injury. The Heat will need both Vincent and Oladipo to fill in the void in Lowry continues to miss games.

Who Wins?

The Celtics are:

• 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played.

• 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played on the road.

• 4-1 SU in their last five games as road underdogs.

• 6-4 SU in their last 10 games as road underdogs in the playoffs.

The Heat are:

• 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played.

• 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played at home.

• 9-1 SU in their last 10 games as home favorites.

• 10-0 SU in their last 10 games as home favorites in the playoffs.

Head to head, these teams have split their last 20 meetings and are also 3-3 SU in their last six encounters. However, Boston went 2-1 SU against Miami this season with the Celtics winning their only meeting in Miami 95-78 last November 4, 2021.

The key to this matchup will be Jimmy Butler who has been the engine that has run the Heat’s playoff run. Tyler Herro was their best offensive player during the regular season but he has been inconsistent. With Herro not as reliable, Butler has taken over.

Miami’s offense has a +16.2 net rating with Butler on the floor and a -3.7 when he is not playing. Unfortunately for Butler, he will have to deal with a Boston defense whose players from the 1-5 position can defend him one-on-one up to the perimeter. No question, we’ve seen Butler carry the Heat before, even against the Celtics. We’ve seen Jimmy Buckets deliver big games in the postseason but this is a Boston team that has matured so much from the last time they met in the postseason two seasons ago.

The Heat have more days to prepare than the Celtics but Boston will carry the momentum of their Game 7 win against the Bucks. There is a chance that Boston will fire blanks after an impressive shooting display against the Bucks on Saturday night. But with Tatum, Brown, Smart, and Horford here before and now playing with better teammates around them, I’m picking the Celtics to win the series. Game 1 could go to the Heat though, just like Game 1 went to the Bucks in the previous round. But hey, I’ll take the plus money and ride the Celtics’ momentum.

Prediction: Boston Celtics

Celtics at Heat Game 1 Spread Betting Prediction

Head to head, the winner of their last 16 contests has also covered the betting spread and is 8-8 SU and ATS during that stretch for both teams. Boston however is 2-1 ATS against the Heat this season, owing to their 2-1 SU head-to-head mark against the Heat.

The Celtics are:

• 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall.

• 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.

• 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.

• 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog.

• 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.

• 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 day’s rest.

• 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.

• 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600.

• 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight-up win.

• 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

• 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog.

• 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.

• 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.

• 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games after an ATS win.

The Heat are:

• 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall.

• 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.

• 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a winning road record.

• 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite.

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

• 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600.

• 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.

• 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Conference Finals games.

• 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

• 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight-up win.

• 43-20 ATS in their last 63 playoff games as a favorite.

Both teams have been excellent against the spread all season long with Boston at 51-40-2 ATS and Miami at 53-39-1 ATS. However, the Celtics have fared much better in the postseason at 8-2 ATS while the Heat have been 6-4 ATS in the playoffs.

Considering that Boston faced tougher opposition in the Nets and Bucks, their ATS record to me is more impressive. I have nothing but respect for the Heat and what they’ve done to get back to the top of the East. But remember that Boston was the best team in the NBA in their last 35 games and they finished just two games off the Heat in the team standings.

With the kind of firepower, they showed in Game 7 against the Bucks, I’m picking Boston to win outright. Having said that, I’ll be glad to take the plus 2.5 points in case something like Game 3 versus the Bucks happens.

Prediction: Celtics +2.5

Celtics at Heat Game 1 Over/Under Betting Prediction

The total has gone over in seven out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. The over is also 3-2-1 in the last six games played in Miami. The under is 2-1 in their three meetings this season, with the game that went over having a combined score of 214 points and the two games that hit the over totaling 204 and 173 points.

Boston Celtics Over/Under trends:

• Over is 4-0 in the Celtics’ last 4 Conference Finals games.

• Over is 7-2 in the Celtics’ last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.

• Over is 10-4-1 in the Celtics’ last 15 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.

• Over is 15-7-1 in the Celtics’ last 23 games following an ATS win.

• Over is 7-4 in the Celtics’ last 11 road games.

• OVer is 7-4 in the Celtics’ last 11 road games as underdogs

• Under is 5-2 in the Celtics’ last 7 overall.

• Under is 5-2 in the Celtics’ last 7 games following a straight-up win.

• Under is 5-2 in the Celtics’ last 7 Tuesday games.

• Under is 5-2 in the Celtics’ last 7 games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600.

Miami Heat Over/Under trends:

• Over is 4-0 in the Heat’s last 4 Conference Finals games.

• Over is 6-1 in the Heat’s last 7 versus a team with a winning straight-up record.

• Under is 6-0 in the Heat’s last 6 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

• Under is 7-1 in the Heat’s last 8 games as a favorite.

• Under is 6-1 in the Heat’s last 7 games following a straight-up win.

• Under is 6-1 in the Heat’s last 7 games as a home favorite.

• Under is 6-1 in the Heat’s last 7 home games.

• Under is 5-1 in the Heat’s last 6 games following an ATS win.

• Under is 5-1 in the Heat’s last 6 Tuesday games.

• Under is 9-2 in the Heat’s last 11 overall.

• Under is 16-5 in the Heat’s last 21 playoff games as a favorite.

The Celtics were the top defensive team during the regular season while the Bucks are the best defensive team in the playoffs. The under is 15-5 in their last 10 games each combined and used their defense to close out their previous series. The Celtics held the Bucks to 87 points per game in the last two games of the series while the Heat limited the Sixers to 87.5 points per game over the final two games of their series.

These teams have combined to score a total of 197 points per game in their three head-to-head meetings this season and this one should be no different, especially since it’s playoffs time. Give me the teams to hit the under in this defensive matchup.

Prediction: Under 206.5

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