Carl Frampton vs Josh Warrington Pick - Boxing Preview for 12-22

Carl Frampton looks to add to his resume as he challenges Josh Warrington for the IBF Featherweight title on Saturday 12/22/18 at the Manchester Arena in England.

Carl “The Jackal” Frampton (26-1, 15 knockouts)

Carl Frampton is the pride of Northern Ireland, being its first fighter and the second from Ireland to win a major world title in two different weight classes. The Jackal unified the WBA (Super) and IBF Super Bantamweight titles from 2014-2016 before moving up in weight to capture the WBA (Super) Featherweight title from 2016-2017. For his feat, Frampton was named as Fighter of the Year by Ring, Boxing Writers Association of America and ESPN.

Frampton is coming off a win over Australian Luke Jackson last August. The Jackal has won five out of his last six fights with his only setback during that period was a majority decision loss to Leo Santa Cruz during their rematch in 2017. Prior to that, Frampton unseated Santa Cruz as WBA (Super) Featherweight champion also by majority decision.

The 31 year old Frampton stands 5-5 with a reach of 62 inches. The Jackal is an athletic fighter who has fast hands and serious punching power in both hands. Frampton is an excellent inside boxer who lands heavy body shots that wear down his opponents as the fight goes on. Frampton though only has two knockout wins in his last seven fights but while part of that was his move up in weight, it’s also because he’s developed into a complete boxer who doesn’t necessarily have to knock his opponent out to win fights.

What’re the Odds?

Carl Frampton vs Josh Warrington
Moneyline Odds: Frampton -192, Warrington +167
Over/Under Odds: Over 9.5 -448, Under 9.5 +373
Odds from betonline.ag as of 12/21/18

Josh “The Leeds Warrior” Warrington (27-0, 6 knockouts)

28 year old Josh Warrington is a former English, Commonwealth and British featherweight title holder. After defeating former world champion Kiko Martinez to retain his WBC international featherweight belt, Warrington faced Dennis Ceylan for the IBF featherweight title eliminator. Warrington knocked out Ceylan in 10 rounds to earn the right to challenge Lee Selby for the world title.

Warrington has four four times since 2017 and he is coming off the biggest win of his career- a split decision win over the “Welsh Mayweather” Lee Selby last May. The win earned Selby his first ever world title in his first ever world title fight. In that fight, Warrington outworked Selby from start to finish and suffocated him with constant pressure and relentless punch combinations.

The 5-7 Warrington fights out of the orthodox stance, has good movement, very fast hands and solid defense. These qualities allow him to put together serious punch combinations without putting himself at risk. The knack about Warrington though is his lack of punching power as he only has a 22% knockout rate. But while he doesn’t have the pop that some of the elites have, his high work rate makes up for that most of the time.

Who Wins?

This is going to be a barnburner given the reputation of these two combatants. As usual expect Warrington to start like a house on fire and try to overwhelm Frampton with his speed and volume. Frampton meanwhile would like a slower paced fight where he can pick his spots and land his big body punches that will wear down his opponent. It’s not that Frampton can’t keep up with Warrington but the Jackal would not want to risk losing rounds on points by fighting the style of his younger and bigger opponent.

Betting Prediction

I think Warrington gives Frampton some problems early on. But the Jackal is such an intelligent fighter that he’s going to figure out his opponent as the first wears on. The longer this goes, the more Frampton should get stronger. The problem for Warrington here is that he doesn’t have the firepower to take out the Jackal early.

We’re picking Carl Frampton to win by late stoppage or decision. With the over/under bets priced higher than the moneyline odds, the best bet here is to go for Frampton at his moneyline price of -192.

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