Butler vs Villanova 01/21/20 NCAAM Betting Odds and Preview

Butler #13 hopes to get back on track as it takes on #9 Villanova on January 21, 2020, at the Finneran Pavilion.

Butler was in the top five after starting the season with a 15-1 record. But after suffering back to back losses in their last two games, the Bulldogs need to regroup to get their lofty ranking back. Villanova has won four straight games and have broken into the Top 10 at #9, The Wildcats are coming off a win over UConn and they look to extend their streak with a win over their Big East conference rivals.

Back to Back Losses

After starting the season with a 15-1 record, the Butler Bulldogs have dropped back to back conference games. In their last game, the Bulldogs were upset by DePaul which raced to a 10-2 lead to open the game and never looked back. The Blue Demons shot 10-17 from behind the three-point arc and never trailed in the game.

Kamar Baldwin had 16 points in a losing effort for Butler while Jordan Tucker added 13 points off the Bulldogs’ bench. Butler shot 41.5% from the field and only 33.33% from the three-point area while committing a total of 17 turnovers. The Bulldogs gave up 23 fouls which led to 32 free throws for DePaul

Butler is averaging 68.2 points per game on the year and they are shooting 47.1% from the floor and 35.6% from three-point land. The Bulldogs have the 5th best scoring defense in the nation but in their last two games, they have given up 78 and 79 points, their worst defensive efforts of the year.

#2 Team in the Big East

The Wildcats are the #2 ranked team in the Big East. Villanova has won 10 out of their last 11 games and this includes a December 21, 2019 win over then top-ranked Kansas. The Wildcats have been in many close contests but they have played steady down the stretch and have won six out of their last seven games by eight points or fewer.

In their last game, Villanova came back from a six-point deficit in the final 12 minutes to beat UConn 61-55. They closed out the game with a 26-14 run to claim their fourth consecutive victory. Jermaine Samuels led the team in scoring with 19 points while Collin Gillespie added 12 points. They forced the Huskies to 2-15 shooting from three-ball.

Villanova relies heavily on its starters and doesn’t have a deep rotation with only six players scoring at least 2.1 points per game and only seven players who have played every game this season. They are shooting 44.7% from the floor and 35.2% from three-point range. Saddiq Bey leads the team in scoring at 15.1 points per game.

Who Wins?

Butler is 15-3 SU in their last 18 games played. The Bulldogs are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games played on the road. Villanova is 10-1 SU in their last 11 games played. The Wildcats are 20-0 SU in their last 20 games played at home. Head to head, the Wildcats are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against the Bulldogs. Villanova is also 5-1 SU in their last six games against Butler.

Butler lost its Top 5 ranking after back to back losses to Big East Conference rivals Seton Hall and DePaul. Against DePaul, their defense allowed 79 points, the most they have given up this season. Butler concludes their three-game, seven-day conference series with a showdown against Villanova.

The Wildcats are playing their best basketball of the season. The Villanova defense has allowed just 62.3 points per game in their last 10 contests. Villanova held Connecticut to 2-15 three-point shooting last Saturday to pick up their fourth consecutive victory and move to #9 in the rankings.

Jermaine Samuels has been averaging over 13 points per game for the Wildcats in his last nine games. However, I think Butler regains its defensive poise in a game they need to win to keep their lofty billing. Villanova is just 267th in the nation in opponents’ field goal percentage. The Bulldogs should score enough points to snap their losing streak.

Prediction: Butler Bulldogs

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Other Bets to Make

Butler is 11-6-1 ATS in 18 games played this season. The Bulldogs are 3-2 ATS in five road games played this year, and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against the Big East Conference. Villanova is 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games played. The Wildcats are 5-4 ATS in nine home games played this year and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 January games. Head to head, the Wildcats are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Bulldogs, including 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings.

Butler has one of the best defenses in college basketball but they have lost back to back games. Villanova has scored less than 65 points in four out of their last seven games played and they are 267th in opponent field goal percentage. Butler is in the top 80 in shooting and three-point shooting. In a season where we’ve seen plenty of upsets, I like Butler’s chances here. The Bulldogs stop the Wildcats with their defense and score enough points to pull off the victory.

Prediction: Butler +3.5

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The total has gone under in 11 out of the 18 games played by the Bulldogs. Butler has seen the total go under in three out of their five road games played this season. The under is also 5-1 in their last six Tuesday games. The total has gone under in six out of the last seven games played by Villanova. The under is 5-4 in the Wildcats’ last nine games played at home and the under is also 4-1 in their last five games against the Big East Conference.

Butler has the fifth-best scoring defense in the nation at 57.1 points per game allowed this season. They have allowed at least 78 points in their last two outings but have yielded fewer than 60 points in 12 out of their 18 assignments. Villanova is giving up an average of 66.8 points per game this season and the Wildcats have scored under 65 points in four out of their last seven games played. These teams are near the bottom when it comes to pace so I’m expecting a low-scoring game here.

Prediction: Under 130.5

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