The Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks open a three-game series on Monday night at Chase Field.
Milwaukee is looking to keep pace with the Chicago White Sox who are tied with them for the best record in the NL Central at 40-32. The Brewers split their last set, a four-game series with the Colorado Rockies, winning 7-6 on Sunday.
The Diamondbacks were swept by the Dodgers in their last series and they now have lost 17 consecutive games heading to Monday’s game. In their season finale against the Dodgers, Arizona lost 9-8 and fell to 20-53 on the season.
The Milwaukee Brewers kept level with the Chicago White Sox after ninth-inning rallies in their previous two games. Milwaukee took a 6-0 lead against the Rockies on Sunday only to allow four home runs in one inning for Colorado that forced a tie. Fortunately for Milwaukee, Daniel Vogelbach hit a game-winning RBI in the 9th inning.
Brett Anderson will open the series for Milwaukee. The 33-year old lefty is 2-4 in 11 starts this season with an ERA of 4.24 and a WHIP of 1.39. Anderson however, is coming off his best start of the season last Tuesday when he pitched seven scoreless innings against the Cincinnati Reds while allowing only one hit and one walk with nine strikeouts.
Milwaukee will be without center fielder Lorenzo Cain who is out with a strained hamstring while third baseman Travis Shaw is plagued by a dislocated shoulder. Rookie Tyrone Taylor also has a strained shoulder while relief pitchers Angel Perdomo and Justin Topa are also on the injured list.
Odds from BetOnline as of 06/21/2021
Arizona’s furious rally against the L.A. Dodgers fell short on Sunday allowing the Dodgers to sweep them in the series. The Diamondbacks have lost an incomprehensible 31 out of their last 33 games played and are a dismal 20-53 on the season with the worst record in the Majors.
Merrill Kelly gets the start for the Diamondbacks on Monday. The 32-year old right-hander has started in a total of 14 games this season and owns a record of 2-7 with a 5. 4 ERA and a WHIP of 1.37. Merrill took the loss in his last start last Wednesday against the Giants, giving up four runs on four hits with three walks in only three innings of work.
Catcher Carson Kelly fractured his wrist during Saturday’s game and has been placed on the IL. Outfielder Kole Calhoun is still out after undergoing hamstring surgery while the Diamondbacks’ starters Madison Bumgarner, Luke Weaver, Taylor Widener, and Jon Duplantier are also out. Arizona is also without five relievers due to various injuries.
Milwaukee is 2-5 in their last seven games played. The Brewers however are 7-0 in their last seven games against an opponent with a winning percentage of .400 or lower, 11-2 in their last 13 games when their opponents allow 5 or more runs in their previous game, 12-3 in their last 15 games after a win, and 6-2 in their last eight Game 1s of a series.
Arizona is 0-10 in their last 10 games played. The Diamondbacks are 18-44 in their last 62 games after allowing more than five runs in their previous outing, 14-37 in their last 51 games against an opponent with a winning record, 7-19 in their last 26 games as betting underdogs, and 8-26 in their last 34 games against a left-handed starter.
Head to head, the Brewers are 17-5 in their last 22 games played against the Diamondbacks. Milwaukee is also 4-1 in their last five head-to-head meetings in Arizona.
While Anderson only has mediocre stats right now, those may be enough against the Diamondbacks who are really struggling to pick up wins this season.
The Milwaukee offense has also been showing some signs of life with Will Adames posting an 0.871 OPS since his arrival 27 games ago. Christian Yelich has looked better this month after injuries plagued him at the start of the season.
Kelly is a solid pitcher and has posted decent numbers this season. However, when he comes out, the Arizona bullpen has an ERA of 5.57, the worst in the NL. On the other side, Anderson will have the unhittable Josh Hader as closer plus other solid relievers.
The Brewers have played well against teams having a winning percentage of .400 and below. On Monday, they should keep that trend against the worst team in the Majors.
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
The total has gone over in four out of the Brewers’ last five games when allowing more than five runs in their previous game. The over is 4-1-1 in their last six games after a win, 4-1-1 in their last six road games, 6-2 in their last eight games as road favorites, and 10-4 in their last 14 games against the National League West.
The total has gone over in five out of the last six games played by the Diamondbacks. The over is 8-1 in their last nine home games against an opponent with a winning record, 5-1 in their last six games after a loss, 5-1 in their last six games as underdogs, and 6-0-1 in their last seven games against a starting pitcher with a WHIP of over 1.30.
Head to head, the over is 4-1 in their last five meetings in Arizona but the under is 5-2 in their last seven meetings overall.
Odds from BetOnline as of 06/21/2021
The Diamondbacks lost their second-best hitter in Carson Kelly during the weekend and that’s going to worsen their scoring woe. Merrill Kelly has a solid K/BB ratio and a promising 4.28 FIP. But unless he can go deep in this game, the terrible Arizona bullpen is going to give this one away.
Arizona has conceded at least 9 runs in five out of their last six games and that’s too much. Meanwhile, the Brewers’ offense is picking up as of late with the team scoring 5 or more runs in six out of their last 10 games including their last three.
I think both starters will have decent outings here but once that Arizona bullpen enters the picture, expect the runs to come easy for the Brewers, even if they don’t have an explosive offense. Give me these teams to hit the over.
Prediction: Over 9.5