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The Boston Red Sox look to close out their American League Division series against the New York Yankees on Tuesday October 9, 2018. The Red Sox cruised to a 16-1 win on Monday to take a 2-1 lead in the series.
One Win Away
Following Monday’s blowout win over the Yankees, the Red Sox are just one win away from their first ALCS trip since 2013, the year when they won the World Series.
Rick Porcello will start for the Red Sox in Game 4. The 29 year old right hander had an excellent 2018 season, accumulating a record of 17-7 in a total of 33 starts this season. The Morristown, New Jersey native had an ERA of 4.28 and a WHIP of 1.18 during the regular season.
He ranked 4th in the American League in wins, 5th in win percentage (.708) and 10th in innings pitched (191.1 innings). Porcello was supposed to be the Red Sox starter in Game 3 but Boston decided to give him an additional day rest after pitching in relief in Game 1. Porcello is winless in his first two playoff games with Boston and has an ERA of 7.56 in those two games.
Porcello has a road record of 10-3 with an ERA of 3.86 this season. Porcello has four starts against the Yankees this season and he has a 2-0 record with an ERA of 2.31. In a total of 23.1 innings pitched against New York, Porcello has given up 6 runs on 11 hits including one homerun with 4 walks and 20 strikeouts. The Yankees had a batting average of .143 against Porcello.
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees 10/09/18
Moneyline Odds: Red Sox +104, Yankees -114
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 10/09/18
Waited Too Long
After winning Game 2, the Yankees had a chance to take the series lead on Monday but Yankees’ manager Aaron Boone waited too long to pull out Luis Severino in the game. By the time he did, the Red Sox had already drilled Severino with six runs on seven hits. Now Boone hopes they can extend the series with a win on Tuesday.
For the New York Yankees, it will be 17 year veteran CC Sabathia who will open on top of the mound. Across 29 starts this season, Sabathia had a record of 9-7 with an ERA of 3.65 and a WHIP of 1.31.
The 38 year old from Vallejo, California will be making his 23rd postseason start but his first against the Red Sox since 2007. In 22 postseason games started, Sabathia has a 10-6 record with an ERA of 4.20 and a WHIP of 1.53. In a total of 126.1 postseason innings pitched, Sabathia is allowing opposing hitters to bat .269 against him.
Sabathia is 6-3 with an ERA of 3.12 at Yankee Stadium this season. He has three starts against the Red Sox this season and has a record of 1-0 with an ERA of 4.50 against the Red Sox. Sabathia pitched a total of 14 innings against the Red Sox, giving up seven runs including two home runs on 18 hits with five walks and 12 strikeouts. He didn’t make it out of the fifth inning in two of his starts against the Red Sox this year but he held them to one run in seven innings at Yankee Stadium last June 29.
Who Wins?
The Yankees are 18-8 in their last 26 American League East rivals and 6-2 in their last 8 divisional playoff games. New York is also 7-3 in CC Sabathia’s last 10 home starts and 6-0 in his last six Tuesday games started. New York is also 6-2 in Sabathia’s last 8 starts against the Red Sox and 4-1 in his previous five starts at home against Boston.
On the other hand, the Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 divisional playoff road games and 3-7 in their last 10 divisional playoff games overall. The Yankees are also 8-4 SU in their last 12 against the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. In seven starts at Yankee Stadium, Porcello is 1-4 with an ERA of 5.56 and an opponent batting average of .331.
The Red Sox are coming off a huge 16-1 win in Game 3. But take that game away and Boston has scored more than two runs at Yankee Stadium just once in their last four visits. With their backs against the wall, I expect the Yankees’ big guns to score enough runs to extend this series to a fifth game.
We’re picking the New York Yankees to beat the Boston Red Sox on 10/09/18.
Other Bets To Make
The Yankees are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games but are only 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games at Yankee Stadium. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 4-2 ATS in their last six games versus the Yankees in New York.
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees 10/09/18
Spread Odds: Red Sox +1.5 (-195), Yankees -1.5 (+170)
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 10/09/18
The Yankees are going to win this but Boston has the best offense in the business so we won’t see the Yankees winning by blowout here. Three of their last 10 games this season have been decided by one run, including Game 1 of this series. You can’t give any small advantage to either team ,even if it’s just 1.5 runs.
Prediction: Red Sox +1.5
The total has gone over in 7 out of Boston’s last 8 games and over in 9 out of the Yankees’ last 10 games. The total is also 5-1 in Boston’s last six road games and 6-1 in the Yankees’ last 7 games. In the last six games between these teams at Yankee Stadium, the score went over five times.
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees 10/09/18
Over/Under Odds: Over 9 +105, Under 9 -125
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 10/09/18
The Red Sox averaged 5.6 runs in their 10 games at Yankee Stadium this season and Porcello has historically performed poorly at Yankee Stadium. I expect a productive night from both squads.
Prediction: Over 9
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