The Buffalo bills hit the road and travel to the Caesars Superdome for a Thanksgiving showdown with the New Orleans Saints.
Buffalo was blown out by the Indianapolis Colts 41-15 last weekend to drop to 6-4 SU on the season. The Bills are 2nd in the AFC East, one-half game behind the red-hot New England Patriots in the division standings. Buffalo is just 3-3 SU in their last six games played and are looking to turn things a notch with the season heading to the homestretch.
New Orleans’s first season without Drew Bees has been a challenge. The Saints lost new starter, Jameis Winston, to an ACL and MCL injury and they head to Thanksgiving Day with a 5-5 record after losing their last three games. The Saints are 2nd in the NFC South but are two games behind the defending Super Bowl champions Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the divisional standings.
If the season would end today, both teams will be the 7th seed in their respective conferences so this game is important to both as far as postseason implications are concerned.
Buffalo got supplanted from the top of their division following a big loss to the Colts last weekend. The Bills committed four turnovers in that game, which led to three Colts touchdowns. Buffalo gave up four rushing TD and five overall to Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. The Bills have dropped thee out of their last five games played.
Josh Allen has completed 65.7% of his passes for 2,811 yards with 21 TD but has thrown five interceptions in his last three games played. Stefon Diggs is his top target with 60 catches for 773 yards and six TDs while Devin Singletary has rushed for 415 yards on an average of 5.0 yards per carry.
The Bills have the 7th best passing offense in the league at 272. 9 yards per game. They are ranked 12th in rushing at 118.8 yards per contest. The Bills are the 2nd highest-scoring team in the league at 29.5 points per game scored and are 2nd in scoring defense at 17.6 points per game allowed.
Odds from BetOnline as of 11/25/2021
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans has dropped three straight games since losing starting QB Jameis Winston to injury. The Saints lost to the Philadelphia Eagles 40-29 last Sunday. Trevor Siemian threw 3 TD passes and ran for one but also had two picks while playing without several starters. Four-time pro bowl running back Alvin Kamara and tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk didn’t play in that game and all are questionable for this game.
Trevor Siemian has completed 56.9% of his passes for 920 yards with eight TDs. Alvin Kamara has rushed for 530 yards on 146 carries but has missed their last two games. Deonte Harris has caught 26 passes for 418 yards while Marquez Callaway has 372 receiving yards and six TD grabs.
The Saints rank 26th in passing at only 203.4 passing yards per game. They are 13th in rushing at 117.9 yards per game. New Orleans has the 14th best scoring offense at 25.1 points per game and the 10th ranked scoring defense at only 21.8 points per game allowed.
Buffalo is 14-5 SU in their last 19 games played. The Bills are 3-2 SU in five road games played this season and 2-5 SU in their last seven games played against the NFC South division.
New Orleans is 1-3 SU in their last four games played. The Saints are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games played at home, and 14-3 SU in their last 17 games against the AFC. Head to head, the Saints have won each of their last five games against the Bills.
Josh Allen completed 21 of 35 passes for 200 yards and was harassed all afternoon long by a Colts defense in Sunday’s loss. With the loss, Allen’s career record dropped to 17-17, including 0-2 in the playoffs in games where he has committed a turnover. Buffalo committed four turnovers in the game, including three which led to an Indianapolis touchdown.
The Saints have dropped three straight games and have scored just an average of 25.0 points per game during their losing streak. New Orleans is also ranked 21st in passing defense while the Bills lead the league in passing yards through week 11.
This is a good opportunity for Allen and the Bills to rebound and given the importance of the game, I expect the Bills to come out strong and beat the Saints decisively.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills
Other Bets to Make
Buffalo is 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games played. The Bills are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against the AFC, 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games after an ATS loss, 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games after a straight-up defeat, 4-0 ATS in their last four Week 12 games, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up loss of more than 14 points, 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games played in November, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.
New Orleans is 5-5 ATS in 10 games played this season and 2-2 ATS in four home games played so far this year. The Saints are 3-6 ATS in their last nine Week 12 games, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against an opponent with a winning record, and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games against an opponent with a winning road record.
Head to head, the favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five games played between these two teams.
Odds from BetOnline as of 11/25/2021
The Bills are just 3-3 SU and 2-3-1 ATS in their last six games played. But make no mistake, Buffalo is still ranked in the Top 5 on both sides of the field. If the Bills are to turn things around, this is the game where it should start.
New Orleans will go with Trevor Siemian as starting QB and they may be without their two best running backs on Thursday. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram did not practice on Tuesday as both are bothered by knee injuries. Even if these two show up, they would be compromised.
Buffalo isn’t missing any key player on Thursday so there is really no reason why they can’t cover the spread here.
Prediction: Bills -5.5
The total has gone over in four out of the last six games played by the Bills. The over is 10-4 in Buffalo’s last 14 games played on the road, 4-1 in their last five games after an ATS loss of more than 14 points, and 5-2 in their last seven games played in November. The total has also gone over in each of their last four games when allowing less than 150 passing yards in their previous game.
The total has gone over in six out of the last seven games played by the Saints. The over is 7-2 in their last nine games played against the AFC East, 12-3-1 in their last 16 games as home underdogs, 9-3 in their last 12 games after an ATS loss, 9-3 in their last 12 games after allowing less than 150 passing yards in their previous game, 20-8 in their last 28 games after a straight-up loss, 7-3 in their last 10 home games against an opponent with a winning road record, and 9-4 in their last 13 games against an opponent with a winning record.
Odds from BetOnline as of 11/25/2021
The Saints have hit the over in their last four games despite not having their starting quarterback and star running back in most of those games. That’s because the oddsmakers downgraded their offense too much in the betting market with the total averaging just 44 points in those four games. This one is no different and is just higher by just a point and a half.
Buffalo’s offense has been hit and miss. They have four 40+ scoring games in their last eight games but also scored only six points against the Jaguars and 15 against the Chiefs last Sunday. However, the Saints aren’t a good defensive team, especially with the pass. This should be a high-scoring game with Allen getting plenty of chances to score.
Prediction: Over 45.5