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The Bears of Baylor and the Mountaineers of West Virginia will square off in an all-Big 12 showdown on Thursday 10/25/18 at the Milan Puskar Stadium in West Virginia.
Struggling Defense
The Baylor Bears are 4-3 this season and are coming off a narrow 23-17 defeat at the hands of then 9th ranked Texas in Week 7. Baylor had an opportunity to win that game but quarterback Charlie Brewer overthrew a pass to wide receiver Jalen Hurd in the final play of the game.
Despite the loss it was a surprisingly good showing for the Baylor defense which has struggled all season long. The Bears rank 94th in the nation in points allowed at 31 points per game and 98th in rushing yard allowed at 189.9 rush yard per game. On offense, the Bears average 33.1 points per game, good for 46th in the entire country. Brewer has thrown for 1,798 yards with 10 touchdowns and 3 interceptions and ranks 36th in the nation in passing yards.
Baylor vs West Virginia 10/25/18
Moneyline Odds: Baylor +445, West Virginia -550
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 10/22/18
Rebound From Loss
Before taking a bye last week, the West Virginia Mountaineers suffered a 14-30 loss to Iowa State at Jack Trice Stadium. It was the Mountaineers’ first loss of the season and the game also marked the first time this season that West Virginia had trailed at any point this season.
Who Wins?
Baylor is 6-19 SU in their last 25 games and 2-10 SU in their last 12 games on the road. West Virginia is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games and 17-4 SU in their last 21 games at home. Head to head, the Mountaineers are 4-2 SU against the Bears. West Virginia is also 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played on a Thursday.
Baylor has a good pass defense but it hasn’t faced an offense like West Virginia Remember that the last time Baylor faced an elite quarterback, Kyler Murray burned them for 432 yards and six touchdowns. Although I don’t expect Grier to come up with the same numbers, the result should be more or less the same. I don’t see West Virginia losing two straight games at this stage of the season.
We’re picking the West Virginia Mountaineers to beat the Baylor Bears on 10/25/18. But West Virginia comes in at an expensive -550 so let’s check the other bets to make here.
Other Bets To Make
The Baylor Bears are 2-4-1 ATS in their last 7 games but are 5-3-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road. On the other hand, the West Virginia Mountaineers are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games but are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing against Baylor. West Virginia is also just 2-9 ATS after a bye week and just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games after a bye week.
Baylor vs West Virginia 10/25/18
Spread Odds: Baylor +13.5 (-110), West Virginia -13.5 (-110)
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 10/22/18
To me the most significant trend is Baylor going 5-1 ATS against West Virginia plus the fact that their last three losses at the Milan Puskar Stadium have been by 14 points or fewer. Baylor isn’t one of the top teams in the country and have issues with their consistency. But they’ve had success ATS against West Virginia while the Mountaineers are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss. I believe the Bears have enough on both sides of the field to keep the scoring difference to less than two touchdowns. I think the Mountaineers win but give me the Bears and the plus points here.
Prediction: Baylor +13.5
The over is 4-2 in Baylor’s last six games and the over is also 4-2 in the Bears’ last six games on the road. Meanwhile, the total has gone under in 8 out of the last 11 games played by West Virginia and also over in four out of the last six games between the Mountaineers and Bears.
Baylor vs West Virginia 10/25/18
Moneyline Odds: Over 66 (-110), Under 66 (-110)
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 10/22/18
The Baylor Bears are ranked 46th in the nation in scoring, averaging 33.1 points per game. The West Virginia Mountaineers are even more prolific, being ranked 26th in the entire league with their 36.8 points per game average. The last five games between Baylor and West Virginia have had an average combined score of 80.4 points per game. Additionally, Baylor has gone over in three out of their last four games with an average combined score of 66.75. The trends and the history point to the over here.
Prediction: Over 66
I don’t think that Baylor is going to beat West Virginia but I like Baylor at +13.5 because of their success with the spread and West Virginia’s struggles against it coming off a loss. However, if you’re not sure who wins or who covers the spread, the over 66 is for you. The combined scoring average of both teams exceed the total of 66 and the average combined score in their last five games against each other is 80.4 points.
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