The Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros finish their current three-game set at the Minute Maid Park on Wednesday.
Baltimore took the first two meetings in this series, including Tuesday’s 10-run victory. The Orioles are in last place in a competitive AL East at 25-54 on the season. Meanwhile, the Astros are on top of the AL West with a 48-31 record and will try to snap out of a three-game skid here.
Overall, the Astros lead their season series 3-2 after five games played this campaign.
Baltimore entered this series with only one win in their last dozen appearances at Minute Maid Park. Despite that, the Orioles won the first two games of this series in Houston, including a 13-3 blowout yesterday as a +280 betting underdog. They will be looking for a sweep here.
Matt Harvey will start for Baltimore in Game 3. The 32-year old right-hander has a record of 3-9 with an ERA of 7.54. Harvey started the season well, going 3-1 with an ERA of 4.06. But he’s struggled since then, and the Orioles have lost eight out of the last 10 games he’s started.
The Orioles are averaging just under four runs per game, 23rd in the majors. They are also only 16th in batting average at .235. Cedric Mullins leads the team with a batting average of .323 while Trey Mancini leads the team with 14 home runs and a total of 52 RBI on the season.
Odds from BetOnline as of 06/30/2021
The Houston Astros went on an 11-game winning streak from June 13-24 but have since lost four out of their last five games, including their most recent three. Four of those losses have come against the Detroit Tigers and the Orioles, two of the worst teams in the majors right now.
Rookie of the Year contender Luis Garcia will open on top of the Hill for Houston. The 24-year old Venezuelan has appeared 15 times this season with 13 starts. Garcia is 6-4 with an ERA of 2.83. In his last start, Garcia allowed seven hits but only two runs in six innings as Houston beat Detroit 12-3 last Thursday.
The Astros lead the league with a .278 batting average and 5.7 runs per game scored. Michael Brantley leads the team with a .344 batting average while Carlos Correa has 15 home runs and 49 RBI. Jose Altuve has 17 homers and 42 RBI while Kyle Tucker has 52 RBI and 10 home runs for Houston.
Baltimore is 4-16 in their last 20 games played. The Orioles are 3-17 in their last 20 games on the road, 27-60 in their last 87 games against the AL West, 17-42 in their last 59 games as road underdogs, 48-124 in their last 172 road games against a right-handed starter, and 14-37 in their last 51 games played on grass.
Houston is 12-4 in their last 16 games played this season. The Astros are 14-3 in their last 17 Game 3s of a series, 9-2 in their last 11 games against a right-handed starter, 16-5 in their last 21 games as favorites, 21-7 in their last 28 games on grass, and 7-0 in their last seven Wednesday games.
Head to head, the Astros are 21-5 in their last 26 games against the Orioles. Houston is also 11-3 in their last 14 home games against Baltimore.
This series has proved that anything can happen in pro sports. The Orioles taking the first two games of this series is proof of that. Give Baltimore credit where it is due but I don’t see them having more success against the Astros for a third straight day.
Houston has the better team and that is obvious. Luis Garcia will be starting for the Astros and he has an impressive 1.96 ERA in his last eight games this season plus a 2.32 ERA at Minute Maid Park. Meanwhile, the Orioles will open with Matt Harvey whose five starts in June have yielded an ERA of 9.31.
Despite winning Games 1 and 2, the Orioles are 3-22 in their last 25 road games while Houston has one of the best home records at 26-14 this season. The Astros have lost just five times to the Orioles in their last 26 meetings. Give me the home team to win Game 3.
Prediction: Houston Astros
The total has gone over in 11 out of the last 15 games played by the Orioles. Baltimore has seen the total go over in four out of their last five games against the AL, 5-0-1 in their last six Games 3s of a series, 7-2-1 in their last 10 games against a right-handed starter, and 13-5-1 in their last 19 games on grass.
The over is 11-5 in Houston’s last 16 games played. The total has gone over in each of their last six games as home favorites. The over is 6-1 in their last seven home games, 5-1 in their last six games against the AL East, 6-2-1 in their last nine Wednesday games, and 21-8-3 in their last 32 Games 3s of a series.
Head to head, the total has gone over in five out of the last six meetings between these two teams.
Odds from BetOnline as of 06/30/2021
The Orioles are averaging 4.07 runs per nine innings this season while the Astros are at 5.82 runs per nine innings. The Baltimore pitching staff is averaging a 7.98 ERA over their last 10 games, including a 7.46 bullpen ERA. Throw in the struggling Harvey and we have a recipe for a high-scoring game.
Houston is the best offensive team in the majors and they should be able to unload their frustrations from Games 1 and 2 on the disastrous Harvey. Take the over for this game.
Prediction: Over 9.5