San Diego State Aztecs vs Connecticut Huskies NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship Game

The San Diego State Aztecs look to win their first-ever National Championship on Monday night when they take on the Connecticut Huskies in the 2023 March Madness title game.

San Diego State is 32-6 SU and 19-17 ATS on the season. They advanced to the title game by edging Cinderella team FAU 72-71 on a buzzer-beating jumper by Lamont Butler. The Aztecs have won their last 9 games played heading to Monday’s finale at NRG Stadium.

Connecticut is 30-8 SU and 26-12 ATS on the year and they have won all of their five tournament games by double digits. In their Final Four assignment, the Huskies dominated the Miami Hurricanes and won a decisive 72-59 contest to advance to the National Finals. A win on Monday night would be the Huskies’ first National title since 2014.

These two teams have met only once before, and that was way back in March 2011. The Huskies won that game 74-67 as two-point underdogs.

Tipoff is scheduled for 9:30 p.m.ET at the NRG Stadium in Houston and will be shown live via CBS.

San Diego State Aztecs

Everyone’s talking about the Aztecs.#TheTimeIsNow | #MFinalFour pic.twitter.com/5OCrtACDOQ

— San Diego State Men's Basketball (@Aztec_MBB) April 2, 2023

San Diego State rallied from a 14-point second-half deficit to beat Cinderella team FAU in the Final Four. Lamont Butler hit a jumper with no time left to give the Aztecs a 72-71 win during last Saturday’s first Final Four game. Matt Bradley led the Aztecs with 21 points against FAU.

Bradley is the only player on the Aztecs to average over 10 points per game this season at 12.7 PPG and he was an All-Mountain West First Team selection this season. They have a balanced scoring attack with five players averaging between 7.5 points and 9.7 points per game. Prior to hitting the Final Four game-winner, Butler put up 18 points in the Elite 8 against Creighton.

Connecticut Huskies

See you Monday.#Made4March pic.twitter.com/sdMrCLeaMA

— UConn Men's Basketball (@UConnMBB) April 2, 2023

UConn continued its dominance in the tournament with its fifth consecutive double-digit win in the Final Four. The Huskies defeated the Miami Hurricanes 72-59 in the second Final Four game last Saturday and they have won their first five tournament games by at least 13 points. Adama Sanogo led UConn with 21 points and 10 rebounds while Jordan Hawkins knocked down three three-pointers en route to scoring 13 points.

Sanogo and Hawkins were both named to the All-Big East First Team. Sanogo is averaging 17.2 points and 7.6 rebounds this season. The 6-9 245-pound forward has scored in double digits in all five tournament games played so far while posting a double-double in three of those games. Meanwhile, Hawkins is scoring 16.2 PPG this year and Tristen Newton is putting up 9.8 PPG while leading the team with 4.7 assists per game this season.

San Diego State Aztecs vs Connecticut Huskies SU Prediction

San Diego State Aztecs SU trends:

• The Aztecs are 9-0 SU in their last 9 games played.
• The Aztecs are 10-0 SU in their last 10 Monday games.
• The Aztecs are 3-2 SU in their last 5 games played as betting underdogs.
• The Aztecs are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games played at a neutral site.

No one will question the mental toughness of this San Diego State team. They rallied to beat FAU and won that game on a last-second shot by Lamont Butler. That victory came one game after the Aztecs defeated Creighton on a last-second free throw after a controversial call.

But aside from showing the poise worthy of champions, the Aztecs put themselves in a position to steal that game by playing defense and crashing the offensive boards. Against FAU, San Diego State grabbed 12 offensive rebounds while conceding just 8. Versus Creighton in the Elite 8, they also won the offensive rebound battle 13-9. In a close game, those offensive boards significantly matter.

Against FAU however, the Aztecs conceded 71 points, the most in their last 10 games played. That defensive performance has raised questions on whether they can stop the red-hot UConn offense from putting up points on the scoreboard on Monday. However, it’s worth noting that they allowed just 11 points after halftime. Matt Bradley is coming off a 21 points and 6 rebounds performance.

Defense will be the key to victory for San Diego State. Before their Final Four game, the Aztecs allowed opponents to shoot just 40% from the floor and 17% from a three-point distance. They need to play that kind of defense on Monday night to stop a Huskies team that is making 10 three-pointers per game in the tournament. Darion Trammell should bounce back from his 2-8 performance against FAU. Trammell averaged 15.3 points per game in his previous four tournament games.

Connecticut Huskies SU trends:

• The Huskies are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games played.
• The Huskies are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played at a neutral site.
• The Huskies are 14-1 SU in their last 15 games played as betting favorites.
• The Huskies are 11-3 SU in their last 14 Monday games when playing as the home team.

The UConn Huskies became the odds-on favorite to win the National Title before the start of the Final Four because the other three teams that made the national semifinals were all making their first Final Four appearances. Also, the Huskies won all of their previous round games by double digits and were rolling into NRG Stadium. They lived up to their billing with an impressive 72-59 drubbing of the Miami Hurricanes in the second Final Four game.

UConn opened the season with a 14-0 record only to lose six out of their next 8 games played. During that slump, their vulnerabilities were exposed and they realized that they needed to maximize the talent on the team to bounce back. They did and began sourcing offense from junior forward Adama Sanogo and sophomore Jordan Hawkins while also showing a strong effort to play tough defense on the other end of the floor.

During their Elite 8 and Final 4 games, the Huskies held the Top 6 offenses in the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Miami Hurricanes to a combined 32.8% field goal shooting. There’s no question that San Diego State is tough and determined but you can count on UConn to be ready, especially with their defense.

The Huskies need to keep up their high-powered offense and continue to stay hot from downtown. Another Big 3 performance by Hawkins, Sanogo, and Tristen Newton could lead UConn to the land of promise. However, the rest of the team must not forget to carry out their respective responsibilities. Beating San Diego State means controlling the boards against an Aztecs team averaging over 40 boards per contest. Freshman Donovan Clingan is grabbing 5.4 boards per contest and he might get more minutes here.

UConn has been crushing the opposition in the tournament. San Diego State has the size but they don’t have a big man that can match up with Sanogo, who will be unstoppable on the inside. With Jordan Hawkins’ elite shooting, the Huskies will be hard to stop on offense. San Diego State doesn’t have the firepower to hang around here.

Prediction: Connecticut Huskies

San Diego State Aztecs vs Connecticut Huskies ATS Prediction

San Diego State Aztecs ATS trends:

• The Aztecs are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
• The Aztecs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
• The Aztecs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss.
• The Aztecs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up win.
• The Aztecs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
• The Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
• The Aztecs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
• The Aztecs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Monday games.
• The Aztecs are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Aztecs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played against the Big East conference.
• The Aztecs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games away from home.

Connecticut Huskies ATS trends:

• The Huskies are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
• The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
• The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
• The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Huskies are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 NCAA Tournament games.
• The Huskies are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight-up win.
• The Huskies are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS win.

The Aztecs have covered the number well all season long and they have a tough defense that can allow them to keep ballgames close until the end. However, this Huskies team has peaked at the right time and has looked unbeatable in the tournament. I think San Diego State won’t go down without a fight but UConn has been like an avalanche that has destroyed every opponent it has faced so far. The Huskies have won every game in the tournament by double digits, this one should be no different. I’ll lay the points and pick the Huskies here.

Prediction: UConn

San Diego State Aztecs vs Connecticut Huskies Over/Under Prediction

San Diego State Aztecs over/under trends:

• The under is 4-1 in the Aztecs’ last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
• The under is 17-5 in the Aztecs’ last 22 games played overall.
• The under is 27-9 in the Aztecs’ last 36 neutral site games.
• The under is 4-0 in the Aztecs’ last 4 games following an ATS loss.
• The under is 8-1 in the Aztecs’ last 9 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
• The under is 13-3 in the Aztecs’ last 16 games following a straight-up win.
• The over is 4-1 in the Aztecs’ last 5 Monday games.
• The under is 8-0 in the Aztecs’ last 8 games played as betting underdogs.

Connecticut Huskies over/under trends:

• The under is 7-2 in the Huskies’ last 9 overall.
• The under is 6-2 in the Huskies’ last 8 neutral site games.
• The under is 7-1 in the Huskies’ last 8 games following an ATS win.
• The under is 7-1 in the Huskies’ last 8 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 9-2 in the Huskies’ last 11 Monday games.
• The under is 5-2 in the Huskies’ last 7 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600.
• The under is 5-0 in the Huskies’ last 5 April games played.
• The under is 9-2 in the Huskies’ last 11 games played on a Monday.

The under has been a common trend for both teams. Although the Aztecs went over during their Final Four game against FAU, San Diego State went under in 12 consecutive games prior to last Saturday’s game. On the other hand, UConn has gone under the total in three out of their 5 tournament games, and 7 out of their last 9 games played overall.

San Diego State will not win the National Championship game if it tries to go toe-to-toe with UConn on offense. Defense has been the key to the Aztecs’ success in the tournament and they should go back to that strength on Monday night.

UConn has the size and they play with the 214th-ranked tempo in college basketball. They play a slow game while San Diego State needs this game to be slow to have a chance to win.

Prediction: Under 132.5

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