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The number one team in the nation goes on the road as the Alabama Crimson Tide travel to the Donald W. Reynolds Razorbacks Stadium in Arkansas to face the Arkansas Razorbacks in an SEC showdown on October 6, 2018.
Alabama is 5-0 to open the season and they have done so as the #1 scoring team in the nation backed up with the 5th best defense in the league. On the other hand, Arkansas enters this game on a four game losing streak and needing a big win. However, that may be a tough task as they face the best team in college football.
Road Warriors
While this is only their second road game of the season, Alabama has had no problems playing away from home as these road warriors have won 15 out of their last 16 games on the road while covering the spread in 9 of those games. In their only road game thus far this season, the Crimson Tide won decisively over Ole Miss 62-7 in Week 3.
The offense is led by Heisman trophy favorite Tua Tagovailoa who has completed 75% of his passes this season for a total of 1,161 passing yards with 14 touchdown and no interceptions. Tagovailoa’s favorite target is Jerry Jeudy who leads Alabama with 19 receptions for a total of 423 receiving yards and 6 scores. On the ground, Alabama’s top running back is Najee Harris who has rushed for 319 yards with four scores.
Alabama ranks 1st in the country in scoring at 54.2 points per game and 5th in total yards at 553.2 but not only are they high powered offensively, they also have the 5th best defense in the league which allows opponents to score just 13 points per game.
Alabama vs Arkansas 10/06/18
Moneyline Odds: Odds not yet available as of this writing
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 10/04/18
A Disastrous Start
Arkansas has been on a free fall to start the season. The team has not been able to settle on a quarterback and they have suffered four consecutive losses while being outscored 136-64 after winning their opener against FCS school Eastern Illinois. They face an uphill battle against Alabama on Saturday.
Ty Storey has completed just 50.6% of his passes for 631 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions. La’Michael Pettway is the leading receiver with 183 yards and 3 touchdowns on 12 receptions. Devwah Whaley leads the Razorbacks running game with a total of 231 rushing yards this season.
The Razorbacks are at the bottom of the stats board after week 5. They rank 103rd in scoring at 23.8 points per game while they are allowing 31.2 points per game which is good for only 92nd in the entire NCAA.
Who Wins?
Alabama is 5-0 SU in their last five games and an impressive 19-1 in their last 20 games while playing on the road. The Crimson Tide are 5-0 in their last five games against the Razorbacks and are 5-0 in their last five games on the road against Arkansas. On the other hand, the Razorbacks are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games and just 1-4 SU in their last five games at home. Alabama has won the last 11 head to head meetings between these teams by an an average winning margin of 23.91 points per game. It’s not even close.
By the looks of it, Arkansas is headed to another disappointing year. Against Alabama, they won’t have any answers for Tagovailoa. This Alabama team is the top scoring team in the nation with the 5th defense in the league. Arkansas is coming off back to back losses to Colorado State and North Texas.
The moneyline odds weren’t available yet when we wrote this preview but it’s expected that the Crimson Tide would be installed as heavy betting favorites and hence there may be not much betting value on the moneyline here. You can check back on the betting sites later to confirm that but in a “mismatch” like this, the spread and over/under odds are the best value picks.
We’re picking Alabama to beat Arkansas on 10/06/18.
Other Bets To Make
Alabama is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games and 4-2 ATS in their last six games on the road against Arkansas. On the other hand , the Razorbacks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games, 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games at home and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against opponents with a winning record.
Alabama vs Arkansas 10/06/18
Spread Odds: Alabama -35 (-109), Arkansas +35 (-111)
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 10/04/18>
Alabama is the highest scoring team in the nation with an average of 54.2 points per game. That’s not good news for an Arkansas team that hasn’t scored more than 17 points in their last three games. The Crimson Tide are 5-0 SU this season and have won by an average winning margin of 41.2 points per game. Except for their 22 point win against Texas A&M in Week 4, they have not won by less than 35 points.
Prediction: Alabama -35
The total has gone over in 7 out of the last 12 meetings between these teams.The total is 5-1 in Alabama’s last six games, 4-1 in their five games this season and has gone over in four out of the last six games when playing Arkansas on the road. On the other hand, the over is 4-2 in Arkansas’ last five games.
Alabama vs Arkansas 10/06/18
Over/Under Odds: Over 57 -105, Under 57 -115
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 10/04/18
While they are scoring 52.4 points per game, the Crimson Tide haven’t shut down any opponent this season. The total is 5-1 in Alabama’s last six games with an average total of 64.17 points. All signs point to the over here.
The best bet to Make for Alabama here is the Over 57 which comes at -105. The Crimson Tide have great balance this season with their high powered offense and aggressive defense. With a team that is elite level at both ends of the field, the over is always an interesting option. Against a struggling Razorbacks team, it’s an easy pick to make.
Prediction: Over 57
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