ESL One New York is consistently one of the most exciting events of the year. Astralis looks to reclaim the number one spot, Liquid wants revenge for the embarrassment they suffered in Berlin, and multiple teams are arriving with revamped rosters. This event will be confusing even to the most seasoned CS:GO bettors, which is why we are here to break it down for you. Odds by William Hill as of 9/11/19.
Astralis is looking scary again. They won their third straight Major, with Device picking up his second Major MVP. It seems the Danes have returned to their 2018 form, and they’re the favorites here for good reason.
IF you had forgotten just how good Astralis could be when they’re playing their A game, I wouldn’t blame you. We went something like eight months without seeing them at their peak, which is a pretty long time. There isn’t a guarantee that they’ll be playing at their peak in New York either, but my guess would be they will be. While the post-Major hangover has definitely been a factor historically, Astralis have some ground to make up in the rankings. They’ll surely want to regain their number one spot, which will mean winning ESL One New York, and putting themselves on the board for the Intel Grand Slam.
Anyway, Astralis are incredible. Stacked roster, great IGL, motivated, it’s pretty easy to see why they are in contention for best team of all time. I’d feel pretty comfortable picking them to win this event.
Team Liquid (+240)
Liquid have to be pissed right now. They were rolling into what looked like their era, coming into a Major that had been all but promised to them, then got put away in two maps by their old nemesis Astralis. At this point, their legacy is hanging in the balance. If they fail to win another big tournament with this roster and fade into obscurity, this lineup won’t be looked back on fondly. They need to trade tournaments with Astralis here, and give themselves another leg up on the Intel Grand Slam.
Their roster is still immensely talented, no doubt about it. While some members of the team had a tough time in Berlin, the firepower on this roster is not easily matched. If you told me Liquid was going to win ESL One New York, I certainly wouldn’t be surprised. The strangest thing about their loss in Berlin was how lifeless they looked. With some time to iron the kinks out, and renewed motivation, they could come into this event on fire.
NRG are a CS darling right now. They’re essentially the Cleveland Browns of CS:GO. They made a deep run in Berlin, showcasing CeRq’s talent that we’ve all been waiting to see, in addition to the rest of the team playing well. They earned a semifinals berth, before getting 2-0’d by the eventual champs Astralis.
Now, with some tier one LAN experience under their belt, they’re poised to do some real damage in New York. They might have the best firepower in attendance other than Astralis, even if FaZe pick up coldzera. Brehze, CeRq, Ethan, and Tarik could all be first options on a tier one team. Having them all playing together, under the guidance of Stanislaw, doesn’t really seem fair.
I actually don’t hate FaZe here. While they certainly aren’t a very safe pick, they have a ton of upside, assuming they get the players they want to get in the roster shuffle. We could potentially see a FaZe team that has Coldzera and NiKo on it, which is absurd for obvious reasons. To be completely honest, I could see a team of Coldzera, NiKo, and three bots making a run to the finals of this event. That’s how good those two players are.
If FaZe get Aleksib in addition to Coldzera, I could see them making a run at being a generational lineup. If that is what happens, however, I’d be less excited about their chances in New York. Aleksib is an excellent IGL, but he is a system IGL. It’ll take a while for FaZe to learn how Aleksib likes to play, which means they might not come out of the gates on fire.
Having ENCE this low is criminal. With the addition of suNny they finally have the firepower to go up against the Astralis’ and the Liquids of the world. While it’s yet to be seen if sergej can flourish in a looser team environment, we know for sure that Allu and suNny can. That paired with aerial taking on a less important role make ENCE a much scarier threat in New York.
If ENCE were ever to win a tournament with this lineup, this one feels likely. The team will still feel the impact of Aleksib’s system, at least for a little while longer, which could be lethal when combined with suNny and Allu’s aim.
G2 (+1400) & OpTiC (+6600)
I grouped these two teams together because I don’t even know who is on each roster. G2 kicked Shox and Lucky, and have yet to announce replacements, and OpTiC has been running on the mediocrity treadmill so long that could probably beat Pimp in a footrace.
I don’t know why G2 is at +1400 and OpTiC is at +6600 either. Is KennyS really that good? OpTiC has k0nfig and cajunb, who are both tier one players at least (or have been anyway). You could run this tournament 100 times, I don’t know if we’d ever see either of these teams make the Grand Finals.
I really like ENCE here. +1000 is really high for a team that made playoffs in Berlin, not to mention they’ve added firepower since. If you aren’t feeling ENCE here, I’d suggest NRG at +550. They’re a team that still has some break out potential, and this could be the tournament where they do it. If CeRq plays as well as he did in Berlin, and the rest of the team can galvanize around him, they’ve got a real shot.