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Week 2 of Stage 4 of the Overwatch League is underway and there are six matches to be played: 3 today and 3 tomorrow. As usual, these matches offer some excellent Overwatch betting opportunities. But before I start analyzing them, let’s let’s see the current standings table.
Standings Table
- 1st place: Los Angeles Gladiators (4 W – 0 L)
- 2nd place: Philadelphia Fusion (3 W – 0 L)
- 3rd place: Los Angeles Valiant (3 W – 0 L)
- 4th place: New York Excelsior (2 W – 0 L)
- 5th place: Houston Outlaws (2 W – 1 L)
- 6th place: Dallas Fuel (2 W – 1 L)
- 7th place: San Francisco Shock (1 W – 2 L)
- 8th place: London Spitfire (1 W – 2 L)
- 9th place: Seoul Dynasty (0 W – 2 L)
- 10th place: Boston Uprising (0 W – 3 L)
- 11th place: Shanghai Dragons (0 W – 3 L)
- 12th place: Florida Mayhem (0 W – 4 L)
Overwatch Betting Predictions
Los Angeles Valiant (3 W – 0 L) vs. Boston Uprising (0 W – 3 L)
Match date: May 25th
Los Angeles Valiant is at the top of its game right now, coming after a top 3 finish in Stage 3 (7 W – 3 L) and 3 consecutive victories in Stage 4. Valiant won against Seoul Dynasty, Florida Mayhem and Shanghai Dragons in its first 3 Stage 4 matches and is looking to take down Boston Uprising as well. Given the huge form difference between themselves and Uprising, that shouldn’t be much of a problem.
Boston Uprising had an almost perfect Stage 3, winning against every opponent until the Grand Final of the Title Matches, which it lost to New York Excelsior. Apart from this disappointment, Uprising had a very dominant run in Stage 3 and for a while it seemed that its great form would be successfully maintained until the end of the Overwatch League. But it wasn’t to be. The team’s head coach left after the end of Stage 3 and joined San Francisco Shock. This loss was immediately followed by 3 losses in a row for Boston Uprising, who was defeated by Dallas Fuel, Houston Outlaws and Philadelphia Fusion in the first 3 matches of Stage 4. These disappointing results clearly proved that Uprising is a now a shadow of its former self and should be expected to perform poorly throughout the rest of Stage 4, especially against high caliber opponents such as Los Angeles Valiant.
Based on these two teams’ recent form, LA Valiant is the clear favorite in this match. The only indicator that says otherwise is the head to head record, which is quite surprising: 3 – 0 in Uprising’s favor. I don’t think that will matter though, given that Boston Uprising lost even against Dallas Fuel in this stage.
Betway puts the odds at 1.16 – 4.00 in favor of Los Angeles Valiant, regarding it as the clear favorite to win this match. Betting prediction: Los Angeles Valiant to win.
New York Excelsior (2 W – 0 L) vs. Seoul Dynasty (0 W – 2 L)
Match date: May 25th
In terms of overall results and consistency, New York Excelsior is by far the best team in the league. NY Excelsior won the Title Matches in Stage 2 and 3 and only lost 3 matches throughout the entire duration of the Overwatch League, having a win rate of over 90%. In the first week of Stage 4, Excelsior destroyed Florida Mayhem and London Spitfire, proving that its form is still exceptional.
Seoul Dynasty struggled throughout the entire duration of Stage 3, losing a lot of matches for its standards (almost as many as in Stage 1 and 2 combined). London Spitfire, Los Angeles Valiant, Boston Uprising, Los Angeles Gladiators and New York Excelsior got the best of Dynasty in that stage, making it finish in a modest 7th place with 5 wins and 5 losses. In the first week of Stage 4, Seoul Dynasty lost against Los Angeles Valiant and San Francisco Shock, clearly showing that its struggles haven’t ended yet.
In the previous 3 direct matches, New York Excelsior got 3 victories over Seoul Dynasty. Furthermore, in the last match it didn’t drop a single map (score 4 – 0). Needless to say, recent form and overall performance statistics throughout OWL also indicate that New York Excelsior is the clear favorite in this match.
Betway puts the odds at 1.09 – 5.50 in favor of New York Excelsior, as this is free money to be made.
Betting prediction: New York Excelsior to win.
San Francisco Shock (1 W – 2 L) vs. Houston Outlaws (2 W – 1 L)
Match date: May 25th
San Francisco Shock had a much better Stage 3 than people had expected, finishing 5th with a record of 6 victories and 4 defeats. Shock somehow managed to beat very strong opponents such as Los Angeles Gladiators, Houston Outlaws and Philadelphia Fusion, after two previous modest stage results (9th place with a record of 3 W – 7 L in Stage 1 and 2). In its first 3 Stage 4 matches, San Francisco Shock got 1 victory against Seoul Dynasty and 2 defeats against London Spitfire and Los Angeles Gladiators.
In spite of having a very strong and capable roster, Houston Outlaws had a terrible Stage 3 performance, finishing in 9th place with a record of 4 W – 6 L. In its first 3 Stage 4 matches, Outlaws got two victories against Boston Uprising and London Spitfire and one defeat against Los Angeles Gladiators. These results are encouraging and suggest that the team is on a different level now compared to the previous stage. Overall, expect Houston Outlaws to perform well throughout the rest of Stage 4 and hold its own even against the strongest league opponents.
The head to head record between Houston Outlaws and San Francisco Shock is 1 – 2 in favor of Shock. However, recent form and general performance statistics throughout the entire duration of the Overwatch League clearly suggest that Outlaws is the favorite here. One critical aspect that leads me to believe that Outlaws will emerge victorious, is its victory against London Spitfire from last week. Houston Outlaws won that match without dropping a single map, against an opponent which in turn defeated San Francisco Shock just a day ago (score 3 – 2).
Betway puts the odds for this match at 2.87 – 1.33 in favor of Houston Outlaws, clearly taking into account all the relevant factors in its assessment. Betting prediction: Houston Outlaws to win.
Seoul Dynasty (0 W – 2 L) vs. London Spitfire (1 W – 2 L)
Match date: May 26th
Odds: to be announced on Betway.com
London Spitfire suffered a heavy decline in Stage 3, finishing in a modest 6th place with a record of 5 W – 5 L. That was a big drop for a team that won the Stage 1 Title Matches and placed 3rd in Stage 2. Still, some glimmer of hope still exists, as Spitfire managed to get important wins against Los Angeles Valiant, Seoul Dynasty and San Francisco Shock. In its first 3 Stage 4 matches, London Spitfire won against San Francisco Shock but lost against Houston Outlaws and New York Excelsior.
As I mentioned previously, Seoul Dynasty has been struggling for almost 2 months and is now in a pretty difficult position. In addition to this, what makes it even more likely for Dynasty to lose this match is its head to head record against Spitfire. In the previous three matches played against this team, Dynasty lost every time and seemed unable to adapt to Spitfire’s strategies. The likelihood of that happening again is huge.
Betting prediction: London Spitfire to win.
Shanghai Dragons (0 W – 3 L) vs. New York Excelsior (2 W – 0 L)
Match date: May 26th
Odds: to be announced on Betway.com
Shanghai Dragons is one of those rare teams that seem to find a way to lose the match regardless of how weak the opponent is. Shanghai Dragons is currently the record holder for the entire esports industry, being on a massive losing streak (33 matches). Based on what we’ve seen so far from this team, the likelihood of it getting a victory in this stage is below 5%. In its first 3 Stage 4 matches, Shanghai Dragons lost against Philadelphia Fusion, Los Angeles Valiant and even Dallas Fuel. These losses clearly proved that there’s absolutely no hope for this squad, who seems to have come into the Overwatch League purely as an experiment.
Given New York Excelsior’s caliber, this match should end with a very quick 4 – 0 or 3 – 1 result in its favor.
Betting prediction: New York Excelsior to win.
Dallas Fuel (2 W – 1 L) vs. Philadelphia Fusion (3 W – 0 L)
Match date: May 26th
Odds: to be announced on Betway.com
After being a complete mess for 2 consecutive stages, Dallas Fuel seems to have recovered enough to hold its own against the strong teams in the league and maybe even grab some victories. In its first 3 Stage 4 matches, Fuel won against Shanghai Dragons and Boston Uprising but lost against Los Angeles Gladiators. Overall the team hasn’t looked too bad, but the real test comes in matches like this one, where the opponent is a strong team that’s currently at the top of its game.
Philadelphia Fusion has a very strong roster and the potential to be a top contender, although it still needs to improve some of its tactics and strategies in order to win the difficult matches. Having failed to do that, the team finished in a modest 8th place Stage 3 with a record of 5 W – 5 L. However, its victories against Houston Outlaws and London Spitfire clearly proved that the capacity to play at a very high level is definitely there. In its first 3 Stage 4 matches, Philadelphia Fusion achieved 3 victories against Boston Uprising, Florida Mayhem and Shanghai Dragons.
Given the massive skill difference between Fusion and Fuel, I have full confidence that Philadelphia Fusion will win this match.
Betting prediction: Philadelphia Fusion to win.
