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The 2nd week of Stage 4 of the Overwatch League is already underway and the 9 matches that are left to be played over the next few days are full of Overwatch betting opportunities. But before I start analyzing today’s matches, let’s take a look at the current standings table.
Standings Table
- 1st place: Los Angeles Gladiators (3 W – 0 L)
- 2nd place: Los Angeles Valiant (3 W – 0 L)
- 3rd place: Philadelphia Fusion (2 W – 0 L)
- 4th place: New York Excelsior (2 W – 0 L)
- 5th place: Houston Outlaws (2 W – 1 L)
- 6th place: Dallas Fuel (2 W – 1 L)
- 7th place: San Francisco Shock (1 W – 1 L)
- 8th place: Seoul Dynasty (0 W – 2 L)
- 9th place: Shanghai Dragons (0 W – 2 L)
- 10th place: London Spitfire (0 W – 2 L)
- 11th place: Boston Uprising (0 W – 3 L)
- 12th place: Florida Mayhem (0 W – 3 L)
Overwatch Betting Predictions
London Spitfire (0 W – 2 L) vs. San Francisco Shock (1 W – 1 L)
Match date: May 24th
London Spitfire took a lot of heavy losses in Stage 3, declining from its usual top 3 positions down to an average 6th place. However, in spite of this steep decline, Spitfire still managed to get several important victories: against Los Angeles Valiant (currently 3 W – 0 L in stage 4), Seoul Dynasty and San Francisco Shock. In the first week of Stage 4, London Spitfire played and lost against Houston Outlaws and New York Excelsior.
Unlike Spitfire, San Francisco Shock did the exact opposite in Stage 3, climbing several positions compared to its usual stage placements and ending in 5th place with 6 wins and 4 losses. Among the team’s most impressive wins were those against Los Angeles Gladiators, Philadelphia Fusion, and Houston Outlaws. In the first week of Stage 4, San Francisco Shock lost against Los Angeles Gladiators and won against Seoul Dynasty.
Head to head and overall results throughout the OWL favor London Spitfire to win this encounter. Recent form statistics clearly favor San Francisco Shock though. The defining factor for me in determining the favorite in this particular match is the head to head record. Some teams simply have a higher ceiling and seem to know everything against a certain opponent, defeating them each time they face it regardless of how poorly they’re doing against other teams. London Spitfire won Stage 1 and had a top finish in Stage 2. In its direct matches against San Francisco Shock, Spitfire is currently 3 W – 0 L.
Betway puts the odds for this match at 1.95 – 1.72 in favor of San Francisco Shock. The situation, however, is quite the opposite and there’s at least a 60% chance for London Spitfire to emerge victorious.
Betting prediction: London Spitfire to win.
Los Angeles Gladiators (3 W – 0 L) vs. Florida Mayhem (0 W – 3 L)
Match date: May 24th
Los Angeles Gladiators had a pretty good performance in Stage 3, getting a 4th place finish with a record of 6 wins and 4 losses. Three of these losses came against the top 3 contenders that placed above it, namely Los Angeles Valiant, New York Excelsior and Boston Uprising. Overall, the team seems to be evolving, getting better and better results as the time goes by. In the first 3 matches of Stage 4, LA Gladiators won against San Francisco Shock, Dallas Fuel, and Houston Outlaws.
Florida Mayhem is one of those “started from the bottom now we’re still at the bottom” types of teams. Overall, throughout the entire duration of OWL, Mayhem won 6 matches and lost 27. That’s a win rate of around 18%. In the first 3 matches of Stage 4, Florida Mayhem was defeated by New York Excelsior, Philadelphia Fusion, and Los Angeles Valiant. It’s true, all 3 of these teams are very strong opponents for anyone, but Los Angeles Gladiators is pretty much at the same level. So I don’t see Mayhem standing up to them.
Betway puts the odds for this match at 1.08 – 5.75 in favor of Los Angeles Gladiators and this is practically free money to be made. A score of 3 – 1 is the most likely outcome in this confrontation.
Betting prediction: Los Angeles Gladiators to win.
Philadelphia Fusion (2 W – 0 L) vs. Shanghai Dragons (0 W – 2 L)
Match date: May 24th
Philadelphia Fusion is a team with a very strong roster and a lot of potential, but the fact that it’s slightly weaker than the likes of New York Excelsior and Los Angeles Valiant often causes it to lose important matches at a 1 map difference. That’s what happened in Stage 3, when Fusion finished 8th with 5 wins and 5 losses. However, the team still achieved great victories against Houston Outlaws and London Spitfire, even though it lost against the stronger adversaries. In the first week of Stage 4, Philadelphia Fusion won two matches against Florida Mayhem and Boston Uprising, showing a promising start.
Shanghai Dragons is a record holder for all of esports, having lost 32 matches in a row. And although you might think “well, it’s gonna happen one of these days, will it not?”, the likelihood of that event is extremely low. Shanghai Dragons started Stage 4 with 2 losses against Dallas Fuel and Los Angeles Valiant and is almost certainly going to lose this match as well.
The head to head record between Fusion and Dragons is 3 – 0 in Fusion’s favor. Overall performance throughout the OWL, as well as recent form statistics, clearly point towards a fairly easy victory in its favor. The only thing you shouldn’t do when betting on this match is assume that Shanghai Dragons will lose without winning a single map. That would be a mistake because, in the previous 3 encounters, Dragons won 2 maps twice.
Betway puts the odds for this match at 1.02 – 8.50 in favor of Philadelphia Fusion. At these odds, a tiny bet on Shanghai Dragons might be worth it, although you should keep in mind that the likelihood of a victory in their favor is still quite small. Betting prediction: Philadelphia Fusion to win.
