The first round of the 2015 NBA playoffs finally draws to a close tonight, as the one and only full seven-game series concludes when the San Antonio Spurs visit the Los Angeles Clippers at the Staples Center. This has been an extremely back and forth series with no clear advantage or momentum, although it’s arguable the Clippers began the series as the aggressor and have largely out-played the Spurs.

While the Clippers appear to have been the better team for long stretches and probably should have won this series already, it’s the Spurs who have come together at the right times and stole two games in L.A. the Clippers probably should have won. Still, Los Angeles won two huge road games in this series and now that we’re in game seven, all bets are probably off.

You’re hear to gain some insight on which team to bet on, though, so let’s break down this matchup and come to the best decision possible:

San Antonio Spurs (6) @ Los Angeles Clippers (3) on TNT at 8:00 pm ET

The end has come. Tonight we find out if the defending champion Spurs are on their way down and if the Clippers can actually close out a tough series. This has easily been the best series in these young playoffs and an intense game seven should push that notion over the top. The question, of course, is who will win?

The odds actually favor Los Angeles, as the home team in a game seven wins nearly¬†80% of the time. However, when their backs are against the wall in a game seven, the Spurs simply never lose. This very thing happened to them last year in the first round, when the Dallas Mavericks forced a game seven. The difference? That game seven wasn’t on the road.

That could be the key in a matchup where Chris Paul and Blake Griffin have done as they pleased and the Spurs have oddly gotten very little help from their usually solid bench. The Clippers get nothing from a weak bench and that support could dwindle even further with Glen Davis (ankle) iffy for this one. That likely means more run for Blake Griffin, who will hopefully not be worn down when this game comes down to the final moments. Despite the poor bench play, the Clippers do have a couple guys in Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers that are definitely capable of blowing up. If one of them can offer up a big shooting performance, that could do the trick, as we can bank on L.A.’s starters showing up in their biggest playoff game to date.

It’s never easy picking against the defending champs, but logic actually supports it tonight. The Spurs have claimed two of three road games in this series, but taking three of four is going to be awfully tough. Add that game seven percentage at home, how well the Clippers play at the Staples Center and just how tight this series has been so far, I find it hard to bet against the Clippers. That being said, this is about as close to being a toss-up as it gets, so if you don’t feel comfortable, just chase the Total tonight.

Pick: Clippers 107, Spurs 105

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