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The Indianapolis Colts could be at a crossroads in week 12, when they prepare to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Unfortunately, they mad have to do so without their best player.
Big Injury
Per reports, star quarterback Andrew Luck sustained a concussion in the team’s week 11 win over the Tennessee Titans and is in jeopardy of sitting out this week:
Nearly 50% of NFL players are back on field within 5 days of concussion. #Colts don’t have luxury of a full week. Highly unlikely Luck plays
— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) November 21, 2016
With concussions normally taking almost a week to fully pass, it’s a tough sell for anyone to believe Luck will be under center just four days after he last played. Luck also wasn’t seen at the Colts’ practice facility on Tuesday, giving way to the fear that he indeed is unlikely to suit up in a crucial week 12 contest.
Backup Plan
Should Luck sit out, the Colts would turn to form Green Bay Packers backup passer, Scott Tolzien. Tolzien has just three starts to his name, when he helped replace an injured Aaron Rodgers back in 2014 and put up just one touchdown to five interceptions.
Needless to say, the Colts may not necessarily be in the best of hands for a pivotal week 12 game, where they’ll either ascend to 6-5 and move one step closer to taking over the AFC South, or they will drop to 5-6 and have an even more difficult path to the top of the division. With Luck out, Indianapolis figures to alter it’s game plan, likely leaning hard on Frank Gore and the running game and hoping the defense can come up big against a potent Steelers offense.
Colts Are Bad Bet
The latter isn’t very likely, seeing as Indy’s defense has been inconsistent all season and Pittsburgh sports one of the more talented and explosive offensive units in the entire league.
Indianapolis was already shaping up as a home underdog in this one, as online gambling sites like Bovada had them as a slight +3 underdog. The Steelers (-3) are fresh off a win over the Cleveland Browns and like the Colts, need to keep winning to make sure they can take over first place in their own division – the AFC North.
That plight got a whole lot easier with the Andrew Luck injury news, and if the Colts star quarterback is indeed out for week 12, the betting odds will only grow in favor of Pittsburgh.
Betting sites like Bovada have locked this game as of Tuesday, and will likely wait to adjust the odds until major Andrew Luck news breaks and there is a definitive stance on his week 12 status. Regardless, the Colts are looking like poor bets for the week. Once betting opens back up, heavy action on the Steelers pulling off the road win is both expected and encouraged.
Indy’s Playoff Odds
As they stand, the Colts have one clear path back to the playoffs: winning the AFC South. They certainly got some help in that journey on Monday night, when the Raiders topped the division rival Texans, 27-20. That dropped Houston to 6-4 and with another meeting with the Texans coming up, the Colts might be able to control their playoff fate. A record of 5-5 isn’t an ideal spot through 10 games, however, and not having Luck this week likely makes winning out a major priority.
That’s never an easy task, but it’s something that still could happen for Indy, who seem to be getting hot at just the right time. Missing Luck and losing this one game might not bury them, but it could drop their Super Bowl odds more and suddenly make them a very interesting bet.
Indianapolis isn’t a current threat according to the oddsmakers, as the Colts have weak +2800 Super Bowl odds. It’s actually surprising they’re not even weaker, however, but they’re still playable enough that if they lose this week, bettors could jump on them as an interesting flier bet that actually has a shot at paying off.
For now, it may be a good idea to wait on the Colts’ Super Bowl odds to drop, while avoiding betting on them in week 12.
