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With June here, it’s time to start getting serious about the upcoming 2016 NFL season. Before we know it, training camps will be here, preseason games will be sounding off and suddenly the regular season will be drawing near. The time for predictions, prognostications, declarations and any NFL betting is now – especially when it comes to picking an offensive rookie of the year.
The 2016 NFL Draft provided some very strong talent and some of those players landed in ideal spots that could allow for them to have huge seasons in just their first year. But which players have the best odds to enjoy a stellar rookie campaign, and are they worth betting on? That’s something to consider as the days of June start to trickle away and all of these newbies start hitting the practice fields.
2016 NFL ROY Odds
Per Bovada, the Dallas Cowboys have the favorite for offensive rookie of the year. The ‘Boys spent the 4th overall pick on Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott, who opens the year as a massive -125 favorite. Let’s see where everyone else falls in line in the latest Rookie of the Year Odds:
- Ezekiel Elliott -125
- Jared Goff +650
- Josh Doctson +1200
- Laquon Treadwell +1200
- Derrick Henry +1600
- Corey Coleman +1600
- Kenneth Dixon +1600
- Jordan Howard +1600
- Sterling Shepard +1600
- Will Fuller +2500
- Paul Perkins +3300
- Braxton Miller +3300
- Devontae Booker +3300
- C.J. Prosise +3300
- Carson Wentz +4000
Best Bets
Elliott is the obvious favorite for a few reasons.
Film Study: Why Ezekiel Elliott will be the 2016 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. https://t.co/wuc6Jie9R6 pic.twitter.com/VGl9YFOVwE
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) May 31, 2016
First, he’s an amazing, versatile rusher who was incredibly productive and durable for the Buckeyes. He’s proven he can be a workhorse for a winning team and Dallas has been at their best when they can feed a stud running back 300+ carries and not look back. On the surface, it appears they can do that with Zeke, who should vie for 1,000+ yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie. Even if those numbers don’t help get Dallas back to the playoffs, they’ll probably earn Elliott offensive ROY honors.
While Elliott is the clear leader here, he’s not alone. Among the best, most logical bets, are Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff and Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Laquon Treadwell. Goff is set up to be an immediate starter under center for the Rams, and part of the process of winning ROY is actually seeing the field. Whether or not he can be productive right away is open for debate, but the Rams have said only good things about him so far.
The same goes for Treadwell, who was a terror at Ole Miss, but has some questions about his deep speed, as well as his quarterback play. He could be totally fine, yet still held back by Teddy Bridgewater’s slow development.
Interesting Sleepers
There are several sleepers to monitor. Sticking with role, talent and natural logic, we can point to Derrick Henry, Sterling Shepard, Will Fuller, Devontae Booker and Carson Wentz as the most interesting sleepers.
Henry is one DeMarco Murray injury away from a massive role as a first year rusher, while the Titans have been loud about their desire to improve their running game. Henry is a total masher in between the piles and actually has a rare size/speed combination that could turn him into a lethal every down back. There are questions about his hands in the passing game, however, so for now Murray looks like the unquestioned starter in Tennessee.
Shepard and Fuller are both immensely talented and could blow the lid off the league. Their impact is going to depend a lot on what goes on around them, as both guys will be the clear number two option (at best) to the likes of Odell Beckham Jr. and DeAndre Hopkins. If they’re even lower, their odds of claiming the ROY throne dip even lower.
Booker is next up on my list, if for no other reason than he’s talented and has already declared war in Denver at the running back position.
Booker was sensational at Utah and looks like he has the athleticism, demeanor and versatility to be a very good lead back in the NFL. Rolling in Denver’s system, that could be great for him early on. The only trouble is that he’s currently behind both C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. It’s quite likely that doesn’t change at any point during his first season.
Last, but certainly not least, is Philadelphia Eagles rookie passer, Carson Wentz. Seen as far more raw then #1 pick Jared Goff, Wentz figures to be glued to the bench holding a clipboard during his first pro season. However, all signs have been extremely positive coming out of Philly thus far, with coaches suggesting he already knows the offense and has looked great in early practices.
Frank Reich: Carson Wentz’s aptitude is off the charts https://t.co/BDgqUb9NpI
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) June 7, 2016
Given Sam Bradford’s shaky play and injury history, we need to look at Wentz as probably the top sleeper out of this entire group. The Eagles may prefer to let him learn from the sidelines, but what if he’s already too good to keep off the field? At +4000 odds, a $100 bet could garner you a crips $4,000 – potentially making it a bet worth considering.
Our Pick
As it stands, the safe money is on Elliott. If we’re not aiming high or dealing with hypotheticals or wishful thinking, he just makes the most sense. Dallas has one of the best offensive lines in the entire league and they certainly would love to run the ball a ton. If Elliott is healthy and effective, they’ll do just that and he’ll probably hoist the rookie of the year trophy at the end of the year.
