Regular MLB slates are back for the start of the new week on Monday night, following a hectic All-Star break and crazy weekend scheduling.
With a little more continuity to look forward to, MLB bettors can sit back and relax as they prepare for MLB betting on Monday. In addition to regular betting, of course, MLB bettors should be looking for some solid upsets to chase. You may have won big if you rolled with some of our proposed upsets last time out – specifically with the Braves shelling Chris Sale.
That was admittedly tough to see coming, but the odds potential was obvious and we liked the potential. Let’s see which other upsets appear to be worth the risk to get the new week started:
Royals Over Indians
There really are not a ton of upset specials to chase tonight, but the Royals over the Indians is good enough to get the conversation going.
These two teams are obviously division rivals, and with the Royals sitting eight games out of first place behind Cleveland, this is a huge series. The good news is they’re at home, where they’re a staggering 29-13 so far in 2016. The Indians do have the elite Corey Kluber on the mound tonight, but he’s not quite as reliable away from home, while the Tribe as a whole does see their play drop off when they play on the road.
None of that guarantees a Royals win, especially with the volatile Edinson Volquez taking the mound. Still, Volquez is at his best in Kansas City and the Royals bats usually come out to play in front of their home crowd. There is nothing locking that in for tonight, but the Royals have an interesting +140 Moneyline compared to Cleveland’s -155. We’ll give the home team a shot at the mild upset in a big game.
Mets Over Cubs
The road trip moves on to Chicago as we begin a three-game set with the Cubs.
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 18, 2016
Things get a little more interesting in our second MLB upset bid, with the Mets coming into Chicago. We’ve got an elite pitcher duel between Steven Matz and Jon Lester, both of which have the ability to control a game and even deliver a shutout.
That probably isn’t happening tonight, but there is a bet growing against Lester, seeing as he was absolutely atrocious in his two starts before the MLB All-Star break. It’s possible he just needed some rest and he returns to top form tonight, but it doesn’t help that one of those games was a shelling handed to him by – you guessed it – the Mets.
Chicago (-150) is a tough upset sell considering they’re elite at home (28-15), but the play here is buying their mild slump (4-6 in last 10 games) and Lester’s poor play continuing. If you believe either to hold firm, the Mets (+135) look like a solid try tonight.
Phillies Over Marlins
The top MLB bet for Monday night is without a doubt the Phillies (+185) over the Marlins (-200). It’s a little odd that Miami is such a heavy favorite here, especially considering Aaron Nola has the ability to control games and this one is in Philly, where the Phillies tend to play their best ball.
Aaron Nola ready to return Monday for #Phillies vs. Marlins and build off recent struggles.
— Comcast SportsNet (@CSNPhilly) July 18, 2016
There is the obvious factor of elite arm Jose Fernandez taking the mound for the visiting Marlins. Fernandez has been largely unstoppable in 2016, marching to a top shelf 11-4 run with a solid 2.52 ERA and a whopping 154 strikeouts.
All of that is awesome, but it’s worth noting that Fernandez’s play drops considerably away from home, where Miami as a whole is just average (25-23) in 2016.
None of this means Fernandez won’t wreck or Miami can’t get the win, but it’s a wide margin for a merely decent Marlins team against a divisional foe on the road. Miami is the safer pick here, but Nola is no slouch necessarily and there is merit in picking the Marlins to defend their turf in this one.
Got a better MLB upset pick for Monday night? Tell us all about it in the comments below!