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The 2014-15 NBA regular season wrapped up last night, with a ridiculous 14-game schedule signing us off. While one massive part of the year has concluded, the meat and potatoes gets served this coming weekend, when all of the truly important games tip off on Saturday (well, not all of them). We made it through a roller coaster year with a sick 734-363 record (good for nearly 67%) after closing out the night with a nice 11-3 run. It’s going to be awfully hard to keep that up with a fairly up in the air Western Conference tourney coming our way, but if you stick with us the odds are in your favor to continue making some nice coin via NBA betting.
The action gets going with four series getting started on Saturday, which will give us plenty to think about over the next two days of no basketball. For now, let’s think long-term and gauge which teams have the best shots of making deep runs or even winning it all. To do that, we’ll list the odds for each team to win this year’s NBA Finals and quickly break down why they can or can’t make a serious go of it:
Cleveland Cavaliers (Odds to win it all: 11/5)
If you want to pile your money on the bet that the Cavs will make it to the Finals, I’m all in with you. Winning against a stacked Western Conference, though, not so much. They’re almost certainly going to land either the Warriors or Spurs if they get there, and if that happens they’re toast. Cleveland has a terrific starting five and can run with anyone offensively. Unfortunately, their depth isn’t great, their coaching is inconsistent and their defense probably isn’t good enough. They just might be the cream of the crop in their conference, but that doesn’t mean a whole lot.
Golden State Warriors (11/5)
Who doesn’t like watching the Warriors? Anyone who is a fan of a different Western Conference team, probably. The big issue with Golden State is a lack of experience, and that knock goes from top to bottom. Their head coach is a rookie and their entire team has never made a deep run. I think they will do that this year, but even reaching the Conference Finals has to be a win. They are a virtually unstoppable offense, they play excellent team defense and they have numerous clutch performers who can kill you from outside. That, and they lost two games at the Oracle Arena all year. Home court advantage is a real thing for this group, so I can’t see them falling within the first two rounds.
While I love the Warriors to get to within striking distance of the Finals, I’m not sure they’re a lock to get all the way in their first try. One lingering issue may be their ability to win road playoff games. The Spurs are a team we know can do that. I’m not sold the Warriors can or will just yet. That being said, their record and talent speaks for itself, while a healthy Andrew Bogut could very well be the difference. Betting on the Warriors is not a silly idea.
San Antonio Spurs (4/1)
The defending champs looked to be dead in the water earlier in the year, but that was largely due to a litany of injuries. Now healthy, San Antonio almost won the Southwest division on the heels of an 11-game winning streak. They bowed out to a desperate Pelicans squad last night, but they still enter the playoffs as dangerous of a threat as ever. Only the Warriors are playing as well as they are and I think it will come down to those two squads (apparently so does Vegas) to see who gets to the Finals. San Antonio may be in it’s final ride with both Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan, so I think there’s a solid chance they get back to the Finals one more time.
Atlanta Hawks (15/1)
Atlanta does a fantastic Spurs impersonation and we shouldn’t discount them entirely, but it’s not crazy to suggest they’re been inflated a bit because of that huge winning streak they had in the middle of the year. They’re well-coached, extremely balanced and pretty deep, but they lack that one big star that can take over at any moment. That can work in their favor, too, as they also have a plethora of guys that can kill you, so you can’t focus on stopping just one of them. I like their odds to meet up with the Cavs for a shot at the Finals, but they also are vulnerable enough to get ousted in round one. They have the goods to make the run, but they’re volatile as it gets for a #1 seed. I just can’t bring myself to fully trust them.
Chicago Bulls (15/1)
Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson are all healthy and the Bulls have the East’s #3 seed, so it remains entirely possible that this team can shock everyone and make a title run. The Cavs still don’t play elite defense and we can’t be sure the Hawks are all the way for real, so the door is at least cracked open for D-Rose to exercise his demons and make it happen. The possibility is there, but the odds probably aren’t. Chicago probably won’t ever be in sync in time to put all of the pieces together, while one more injury could be the death of them. They’re a fun team to make a small bet on and cheer for, but I’m not sure I’d take them over the Cavs or Hawks.
Los Angeles Clippers (18/1)
Lob City is my favorite sleeper squad. They are a little inconsistent on boths ends and have some of the worst depth you’ll find, but it’s hard to knock their coaching, starting five and offensive ability. When they’re in a groove they’re easily one of the best teams in the league and they’re entering the playoffs white hot. The West is truly the best, though, and they’ll have a tough path right away from round one, on. If they were in the East I’d love their chances of getting to the Finals, but in such a cloudy West they’re going to be tough to trust.
Houston Rockets (25/1)
James Harden is a man possessed and a healthy Dwight Howard makes anything possible. So does this team stealing the Southwest division title, as they’ll enter the chaos with the West’s #2 seed. As we see them, the Rockets can score in bunches and can also defend at a high level. They’ve lost some key depth but still have the likes of Jason Terry, Josh Smith and Corey Brewer off the bench. If Patrick Beverley can return to full strength, they just might be sleeper worth betting on.
Memphis Grizzlies (30/1)
Memphis is far from healthy and has an offense that is too much touch and go. I love their starting unit and their physicality on defense, but when their defense isn’t there they can look terrible. They’re going to be a tough out for anyone and absolutely have the foundation for a deep run, but stagnance on offense will inevitably be the death of them.
Dallas Mavericks (50/1)
Dallas has been very up and down all year and it has a lot to do with injuries and poor defense. I’m not a believer than adding Rajon Rondo to the mix helped them, while their only truly elite defender is Tyson Chandler. They have the offense and depth to make some noise, but a run past round two is probably impossible.
Portland Trail Blazers (75/1)
Earlier in the year the Blazers were looking like legit title contenders. Now they’re without lock down defender Wes Matthews and have a less than 100% LaMarcus Aldridge. Ridge and Damian Lillard are true gamers that can get them through round one if everything goes according to plan, but even that’s not a lock. Portland has the balance to make some noise, but the defense has dipped and the depth is gone. They’re not going to be fun to pick to win it all this year.
Toronto Raptors (75/1)
Toronto can turn it on offensively, but they’ve dealt with a lot of injuries and have a very shaky defense that runs hot and cold. They can get away with that in the first round in the East potentially, but they’re just not built to make a title run yet.
Washington Wizards (85/1)
Washington is on the same track as Toronto, which is only fitting considering they face each other in round one. Both teams have the size and depth to give anyone a good fight, but both are also awfully inconsistent. The Wizards are a solid defensive team usually, but they continue to be held back by odd coaching decisions. Randy Wittman is probably why they don’t make it past round two.
New Orleans Pelicans (150/1)
Anthony Davis won’t enjoy his first ever playoff appearance for long. The Pellies are definitely getting healthy at the right time and have a decent bench, but they’re no match for the Warriors right now. Getting even one win will be an accomplishment.
Boston Celtics (250/1)
Boston probably didn’t belong in the playoffs this year, but they’re well-coached and they fight. Their offense is what gives them a shot most games, while their defense is beyond shaky. They have no chance at making a deep run and probably will lose in round one.
Milwaukee Bucks (300/1)
The Bucks play solid defense usually and Jason Kidd has obviously shown he’s a top flight coach already. That being said, they’ve trended downward ever since the All-Star break and they just don’t have the consistency on offense to make a good run.
Brooklyn Nets (300/1)
Brooklyn is an interesting team, as they ended up being quite strong once they finally ran their offense through Brook Lopez. I’m sure Al Horford messes with him in round one and their dream ends there, but the matchup with the Hawks is something I wouldn’t be too shocked if they figured out. Still, the odds heavily support a first round exit, if not a total sweep.
Our Pick: San Antonio Spurs
They’re the defending champs until they’re not, right? I know Atlanta and Golden State are the trendy picks (and for good reason) and there’s always the Cavs, but to me the Spurs have looked as good as ever over the last month and seem to be at the top of their game at the right time. They could easily fall to any of these teams in a loaded Western Conference, but they still have the system, coaching, depth and star talent to make a title run.
Sneaky Sleepers: Los Angeles Clippers
It’s between the Clips and Rockets and I slightly like the Clippers because they’re healthier. They also have something intangible that we haven’t seen out of them before, an authentic swagger as if they want to prove to everyone that their style can get it done. A lot of people are counting them out, but Chris Paul has been playing at a phenomenal level and Blake Griffin’s continued evolving game is always exciting. Picking them out of the stacked West is risky, but they’re going to be fun to watch and follow.
Favorite to Avoid: Memphis Grizzlies
I just think Memphis is too broken down to last through a title run. They have the defense and depth to do it, but the offense is just too shaky. I’m sure any series they in makes it to seven games and maybe they even get to the Western Finals, but I doubt they can get all the way to the NBA Finals.
