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The UFC heads to the Chartway Arena in Norfolk, Virginia this weekend for UFC Fight Night 169: Benavidez vs Figueiredo.
In the main event, former title challenger Joseph Benavidez takes on Deiveson Figueiredo in a five-round bout for the UFC flyweight championship which was vacated by double-champion Henry Cejudo who decided he would concentrate in defending his bantamweight title. In the co-main event, Felicia Spencer faces Zarah Fairn in a women’s featherweight clash.
Before the five-fight main card, UFC Fight Night 169 has an exciting prelims undercard that you might be interested in. Let’s take a look at the prelims fights that have good betting value:
Luis Pena vs Steve Garcia Jr.
Luis Pena appeared in The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated season 27. The 26-year old from Little Rock, Arkansas is a former Valor Fights lightweight champion. He made his UFC debut at the TUF 27 Finale where he submitted Richie Smullen. Pena has a record of 7-2 with two knockouts and four wins by submission. He stands 6-3 with a reach of 75 inches and is a southpaw fighter.
Steve Garcia Jr. is a former Bellator Fighter who appeared in the Dana White’s Contender Series but didn’t get a contract. He also fought for LFA last month where he scored a second-round TKO win over Jose Mariscal and finally got his call from the UFC. Garcia is 6-0 tall with a reach of 73 inches. He has a record of 11-3 with eight wins by way of knockout.
Garcia is used to using his size to throw straight lefts and front kicks but he won’t have that edge here. Pena is three inches taller and five inches rangier and will likely fight at a distance and avoid going to a brawl with the “Mean Machine”. I think Garcia paws away at first and then drags Garcia to the mat where he will engage his opponent in a wrestling battle. Pena is the better grappler and he will find a way to get on top and pound his way to victory.
Prediction: Luis Pena
Brendan Allen vs Tom Breese
Brendan Allen is a product of Dana White’s Contender Series. The 24-year old Roufusport product fought for the World Fighting Championships, LFC and LFA. He made his UFC debut at UFC on ESPN 6: Weidman vs Reyes where he submitted Kevin Holland in two rounds. Allen is 6-2 with a reach of 75 inches and is an orthodox fighter. He has a record of 13-3 with four knockouts and eight submission wins.
Tom Breese is a veteran of BAMMA who won his first three UFC bouts before losing a controversial decision to Sean Strickland. He moved up to middleweight and knocked out Daniel Kelly. Breese stands 6-3 with a reach of 73 inches while fighting out of the southpaw stance. He has a record of 11-1 with four knockouts and six wins via submission.
Allen
+118
Breese
-138
Odds were taken from BetOnline as of 02/27/20
This is an interesting fight between two very similar fighters. Both are tall fighters with good submission skills and they also have decent striking games. The main difference I found was that this is Breese’s first fight in nearly two years after suffering health issues. Ring rust is a concern and could be the difference here. Allen is the rangier fighter but Breese has more power in his strikes. I think in a close fight like this, it’s Breese who wins because he lands the more definitive shots. It will be close but I’ll give it to the better overall fighter.
Prediction: Tom Breese
Marcin Tybura vs Sergey Spivak
Marcin Tybura is a former M-1 Global Heavyweight champion and the M-1 2013 Grand Prix champion. The 34-year old from Poland joined the UFC in 2016 and won three straight bouts after losing his octagon debut. He is 1-4 in his last five bouts and has an overall record of 17-6 with seven knockouts and six wins by submission. Tybura is 6-3 with a reach of 78 inches.
Sergey Spivak is a veteran of the WWFC who joined the UFC in 2019. He lost his Octagon debut to Walt Harris but bounced back with a submission win over Tai Tuivasa at UFC 243. The 25-year-old from the Republic of Moldova has a record of 10-1 with four knockouts and six wins by submission. The Polar Bear stands 6-3 tall with a reach of 78 inches and is an orthodox fighter.
Tybura
-103
Spivak
-117
Odds were taken from BetOnline as of 02/27/20
Tybura is the older man here and while he is the bigger name, I don’t think he has the better gas tank. If this would be a slow-paced kick-boxing match, I think he has a chance but Spivak is a finisher. Eight out of his nine previous finishes happened in the first round. I think that he blitzes Tybura and mauls him. If Tybura survives the early onslaught, I don’t think that he has enough left in his gas tank to go three full rounds.
Prediction: Sergey Spivak
Jordan Griffin vs T.J. Brown
Jordan Griffin is a veteran of LFA and who appeared in Dana White’s Contender Series 2. The Native Psycho dropped his first two UFC bouts, losing to Dan Ige and Chas Kelly by decision. He stands 5-10 tall with a reach of 73 inches and is a southpaw. Griffin has a record of 17-7 with five knockouts and 8 wins by submission.
T.J. Brown was also an alumnus of the Contender Series. After opening his career at 3-4, he won three straight bouts to earn a spot in Episode 10 of the Contender Series 3. Brown will be making his octagon debut in this fight. Downtown stands 5-9 with a reach of 72 inches and is a switch hitter. He has a record of 14-6 with four knockouts and nine wins by submission.
Griffin
+105
Brown
-125
Odds were taken from BetOnline as of 02/27/20
This is another exciting fight to pick as both men fight alike. They are both aggressive grapplers and they both have explosive offense in the standup. With a only five decisions in a combined 40+ fights, this one will be a firefight. Brown has a questionable chin but he is the better fighter when it comes to technical skills. I think that Griffin will be a game opponent and this will be a barnburner. However, I think that Brown is the better kickboxer and has a more diverse wrestling game. I’ll pick the more skilled fighter here.
Prediction: T.J. Brown
Aalon Cruz vs Spike Carlyle
Aalon Cruz was 7-2 when he joined the Contender Series and knocked out Steven Nguyen with a flying knee. The 30-year old from Tampa Bay, Florida has a record of 8-2 with two knockouts and two submission wins. He stands 6-0 tall with an undisclosed reach.
“Alpha Ginger” Spike Carlyle fought for CFX and LFA before joining the UFC. He enters his Octagon debut with four straight victories, three by stoppage and is coming off a KO win over Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani. He stands 5-7 tall and has a record of 8-1 with four knockouts and three wins by submission.
Cruz
-180
Carlyle
+155
Odds were taken from BetOnline as of 02/27/20
Cruz uses his 6-0 frame to his advantage and uses his size to pick his opponents apart. Carlyle has a mean ground game and if he can take you down once or twice, he’s going to take over the fight. However, I think Cruz’s range keeps him from getting pinned on the fence and he will limit Carlyle’s ability in the clinch and takedown. Cruz should win this fight on points and he does so fighting at a distance and keeping himself away from harm.
Prediction: Aalon Cruz
