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The UFC returns to Sao Paulo this weekend for UFC Fight Night 164 which is also known as UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs Jacare.
Brazil’s own Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza will headline the event which will be held at the Ginasio do Ibirapuera on Saturday, November 16, 2019. Souza’s opponent will be light heavyweight contender Jan Blachowicz who is currently the 6th ranked light heavyweight in the promotion.
The event also features several exciting undercard fights and we have picked a handful of them which we think have the best UFC betting potentials. Check them out:
Sergio Moraes vs James Krause
Sergio Moraes went unbeaten in the UFC from 2012-2017 but after getting knocked out by current UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman at UFC Fight Night 116, he’s fallen to hard times with just two wins in his last four fights. Moraes is coming off back to back losses to Anthony Rocco Martin and Wallrey Alves with his defeat to the latter coming by way of knockout. Moraes is 14-5 with 8 submission wins and one knockout. He stands 6-0 with a reach of 72 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance.
James Krause has been competing since 2007 and has fought for various promotions like Bellator, WEC, RFA, and Titan FC. He has been in the UFC since 2013 and has compiled a record of 7-3 under the promotion. Krause has not lost since 2015 and has won five straight bouts. In his last bout, Krause knocked out Wallrey Alves at UFC Fight Night 135 in August 2018. Krause stands 6-2 with a reach of 73 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. His record stands at 26-7 with seven knockouts and 14 wins by submission.
This matchup is a surprise for me because the 37-year old Moraes may be on the way down while the 33-year old Krause has found success since moving up to welterweight. However, when I look at it, this looks to be a solid bout. Moraes has world-class grappling and unorthodox striking. Krause has been busy coaching aside from fighting and has not fought this year. When it comes to skill, this is pretty much even. But Moraes is on the way down and Krause is having a good run. I think Krause edges Moraes here.
Prediction: Moraes +170
Bobby Green vs Francisco Trinaldo
Bobby Green is a former King of the Cage lightweight champion who has also fought for Strikeforce, Affliction and Tachi Palace Fights. Green is in a terrible stretch right now with just one win in his last six bouts. The California native stands 5-10 with a reach of 71 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance. The 33-year old lightweight has a record of 24-9 with eight knockouts and nine wins by submission. Green has not fought since December 2018 when he lost by unanimous decision to Drakkar Klose.
Green
-104
Trinaldo
-116
Odds were taken from BetOnline as of 11/14/19
Francisco Trinaldo was a competitor at The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil. The 41-year old Brazilian is a former Jungle Fight lightweight champion. He has been in the UFC since 2012 and won seven straight fights from 2014 to 2017. Trinaldo has lost three out of his last five bouts and has an overall record of 23-7 with 8 knockouts and five wins by submission. Trinaldo stands 5-9 with a reach of 70 inches and is a southpaw. He is coming off a unanimous decision loss against Alexander Hernandez last July.
Green hasn’t been too active although he’s fought twice in each of the last two years. Trinaldo is already 41 so he isn’t the same fighter that we grew to love at TUF: Brazil. Green is a very talented fighter but he is almost always focused on winning exchanges and putting opponents to sleep. Trinaldo uses his physicality to force grappling contests. Green is younger, has more speed and throws more volume. I think those are going to be the differences here.
Prediction: Green -104
Randy Brown vs Warlley Alves
Randy Brown is the former undefeated Ring of Combat welterweight champion who made two successful title defenses before transferring to the UFC banner in 2016 after starring in the inaugural “Dana White: Looking for A Fight”. Brown won three out of his first four UFC bouts but is 2-2 in his last four Octagon outings. Brown stands 6-3 with a reach of 78 inches and is an orthodox fighter. He has a record of 11-3 with six knockouts and 3 wins by submission.
Brown
+103
Alves
-123
Odds were taken from BetOnline as of 11/14/19
Warlley Alves was the winner of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3 middleweight tournament who made a name for himself while fighting for the Jungle Fight promotion. The 28-year-old from Rio de Janeiro in Brazil has a record of 13-3 with three knockouts and six wins by submission. Alves won his first four UFC bouts but is just 3-3 in his last six fights inside the Octagon. In his last bout, Alves won Performance of the Night honors after a third-round knockout of Sergio Moraes.
Alves has failed to live up to his potential but he’s scary when he is on top of his game. Brown was raw when he joined the UFC but has improved since he first steps foot inside the octagon. However, Alves has the edge here when it comes to wrestling, punching power and submission game. The only worry I have with Alves is his cardio but in this matchup, I think he gets Brown early.
Prediction: Alves -123
Renan Barao vs Douglas Silva de Andrade
Renan Barao is a former UFC lightweight champion who recorded 32 consecutive bouts without a loss for nine years. He was upset by T.J. Dillashaw at UFC 173 and has never been the same. Barao has lost seven out of his last nine bouts including the last four. The 32-year old Brazilian has a record of 34-8-0-1 with 8 knockouts and 15 wins by submission. Barao stands 5-6 with a reach of 70 inches and is an orthodox fighter. Barao has missed the weight in his last two bouts.
Barao
+205
Silva de Andrade
-240
Odds were taken from BetOnline as of 11/14/19
Douglas Silva de Andrade has just fought six times in his five-year stint with the UFC, going 3-3 in those bouts. He was undefeated in 21 fights when he joined the UFC in 2014 but has struggled with better competition. This 34-year old Brazilian is 5-7 tall with a reach of 68 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance. Andrade has not fought since December 2018 when he lost to Petr Yan by TKO.
Andrade may be 3-3 in the UFC but his losses have been to solid fighters. He hits very hard and relives on punching power more than anything else. That’s not good because Barao still has his skill set and from time to time, he still shows flashes of his old brilliance. However, the current version of Barao is just a shell and while he can still offer resistance, he is easily cracked and broken. Andrade has the power to do that.
Prediction: Silva de Andrade -240
Ariane Lipski vs Veronica Macedo
Ariane Lipski entered the UFC with a lot of hype. The “Violence Queen” was a dominant force in Brazil and Poland but has been a disappointment in the UFC. This former KSW champion had a nine-fight winning streak but has lost back to back fights to Joanne Calderwood and Molly McCann. She stands 5-6 with a reach of 67 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance. Lipski is 11-5 with six knockouts and two wins via submission.
Lipski
+100
Macedo
-120
Odds were taken from BetOnline as of 11/14/19
Veronica Macedo is a late replacement hereafter Priscila Cachoeira was removed from the event after failing a drug test. The 24-year old Macedo has a record of 6-3-1 with one knockout and two submission wins. She stands 5-4 with a reach of 64 inches while fighting out of the southpaw stance. Macedo has also struggled in the UFC with three consecutive defeats. However, she is coming off a submission win over Polyana Viana at UFC Fight Night 156 last August.
Lipski’s losses were to Calderwood and McCann who are both better than Macedo. I don’t think Macedo can survive a striking battle with Lipski who lands three more significant strikes per minute. Both haven’t shown enough takedowns in the UFC but no question, Lipski should have the edge if this fight goes to the ground because she is the bigger fighter. I like Lipski to win a physical contest here.
Prediction: Lipski +100
