If you are looking for information about the Super Bowl LIII QB props, you are in the right place. We have taken a long look at the propositions, and we have done the research to provide you with some valuable tips.
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Tom Brady Super Bowl LIII Propositions
Passing Yards Over/Under 319½
We are going to start with the propositions that have been posted for the Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. From a handicapping perspective, we have a robust sample size to draw from as we are evaluating what type of performance we can expect to see from #12.
I’m going to keep it simple here, because you can get lost in the forest for the trees if you try to examine the 16 different seasons Brady has appeared in the playoffs. The Patriots were in the big game three of the last four years, so I’ll look at recent Super Bowl performances along with the 2018 postseason.
New England beat the Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX by a score of 28-24. This was the game that was decided by the head scratching decision by Pete Carroll to throw on second-and-goal from the one yard line with 26 seconds left in the game. The slant pass was jumped and picked off by Malcolm Butler, and the Patriots sealed their fourth Super Bowl win. In that game, Brady threw for 328 yards against a vaunted Seattle secondary.
Last year, the Eagles bested the Pats to win their first Super Bowl in franchise history. I gotta tell you, I was pretty happy, because I’ve been an Eagle fan all my life (and I won lots of bets that day). People that wagered on the over for Tom Brady’s passing yards had a reason to celebrate as well. He broke his own record by amassing 505 yards through the air.
In the two 2018 postseason games prior to the big game that is yet to come, the Pats QB has thrown for a total of 691 yards, which is by far the highest total of any playoff quarterback this year. When you consider his body of work, you have to think that there is a very good chance he will throw for at least 320 yards in Atlanta on the first Sunday in February.
Pass Completions Over/Under 27½
Brady completed 34 passes in the playoff blowout of the Chargers, and he threw 30 complete passes against the Chiefs. In last year’s Super Bowl, Tom connected with pass catchers 28 times.
He was successful on 43 aerial attempts in SB LI, and he tallied 37 completions in the championship win over Seattle after the 2015 campaign. The over is -130, and under is +100. I’ll lay the lumber with the over.
Passing Attempts Over/Under 37½
Like the previous prop, the over on this is -130, and the under is even money right now. This looks like a pretty big number in a general sense, but when you look at recent history, it may not be nearly high enough.
Brady threw the ball 44 times against the Chargers in the Pats first 2018 playoff game, and he put it in the air 46 times in the Chiefs game. He attempted 48 passes versus the Eagles in last year’s Super Bowl, and he threw an unbelievable 62 passes in the comeback game against the Falcons. He lofted the pigskin 50 times in the SB XLIX Seahawk heartbreak.
You tell me, when you digest these numbers, does it look he will fling the rock 38 times or more in Atlanta?
TD Passes Over/Under 2½
The man many people call the G.O.A.T has only thrown two touchdown passes during the 2018 postseason to this point. He had four in the Super Bowl game against Seattle, two aerial TDs in SB LI, and a trio of touchdown throws last year against the Birds from Philly.
This is one that is a bit of a coin toss in my opinion. When they get close, they don’t have fantastic receiving weapons, unless Gronk regains his top form. Over is -130, and under is even, but I’m going to stay away from this one.
Interceptions Over/Under ½
He has thrown an interception in each playoff game this year, and he was picked at least once in each of the three recent Super Bowl appearances.
The over is even, and the under is -130. If you’re probably going to throw more than 40 passes, the chances are one of them will wind up in the wrong hands. I like the over.
Rushing Yards Over/Under 2½
The veteran has never been known for his nifty footwork, so this number is miniscule. He ran for six yards in last year’s game against the Eagles. Against the Falcons the previous year, he took off once and got 15 yards.
Oddsmakers at MyBookie sportsbook have set the over at -105, and the under is -125. This is a do or die game, and he will be willing to run if there is a clear path to a first down in a big situation. I like the over.
Jared Goff Super Bowl LIII Propositions
We do not have the same type of history to draw from when we evaluate the propositions that have been posted for Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff. He has only played in three playoff games during his brief career, and this is his first Super Bowl.
There will be more guesswork involved on this side of the coin, but we will make some educated and informed conjectures.
Passing Yards Over/Under 290½
Goff put up some prolific yardage numbers during the first two thirds of the season, but they tailed off toward the end. He did touch up the Saints for 297 yards through the air, but in the previous game against Dallas, he threw for just 186 yards.
There are many propositions to choose from to keep yourself in action, so there is no particular reason to lay out any money here. I personally do not have an opinion one way or another.
Completions Over/Under 23½
Like the last one, the odds on this are the same -115 for the over and the under, and this underscores the uncertainty of the outcome.
If they simply cannot run the ball, whether they are relying on Gurley or C.J . Anderson, or if they fall way behind, he will have to put the ball in the air a lot. But that’s a big if, so this is another one I’m going to pass on.
Passing Attempts Over/Under 35½
Once again, the MyBookie sportsbook has posted odds of -110 on both sides of this proposition. He threw less than 30 times in the three games preceding the NFC Championship game. Goff threw 40 passes in that controversial contest, but the rushing game was stymied, and it went into OT.
I don’t think McVay wants him to have to throw 36 times or more, but he may not have a choice.
TD Passes Over/Under 2
After a booming start, the Rams quarterback has had quite a bit of difficulty throwing touchdown passes over recent weeks. He has zero TD tosses in three of his last six games, and a single touchdown pass in games against the Lions and Cards. Goff did light it up for four against the lowly 49ers in a meaningless free for all.
The odds on this are -115 in either direction, and I see no value here.
Interceptions Over/Under ½
Jared Goff has taken good care of the ball down the stretch. He has thrown just two interceptions in his last five games, after throwing four against the Bears in Week 14. The odds are -120 over, -110 under.
If I had to bet this, I’d take the over, but I will probably keep my money in my pocket to bet on a different prop.
Rushing Yards Over/Under 8½
Franchise quarterbacks that do not depend on their running ability at all are encouraged to stay put to minimize the risk of injury. Jared Goff is not a scrambler, but he is young and healthy, and this is the Super Bowl.
He ran for 10 yards against the Saints in the NFC Championship game, and he got 12 yards on six carries in the previous contest against the Cowboys. This is -115 on both betting options, and I have to say that the over looks pretty good to me.
Tom Brady vs. Jared Goff Head-to-Head Total Passing Yards
Mano a mano, Brady is favored to rack up more passing yards than Goff at -165. If you like the Rams signal caller, you get positive money at +135. If you have read this far, you know I prefer Brady here, and the bookies do as well.