The biggest prize on Sunday will be Vince Lombardi trophy which will be awarded to the winning team of Super Bowl 54. Next to it will be the Pete Rozelle trophy which will be handed out to the Most Valuable Player of the game.
The Super Bowl MVP is awarded to the player who has the biggest impact on the outcome of the game. It is voted on by a panel of 16 sportswriters and the online vote of NFL fans. The media votes comprise 80% of the vote tally while the fans account for 20% of the total.
With Super Bowl 54 just days away, betting has intensified. And along with the usual bets for the game- Moneyline, spread and totals, countless Super Bowl prop bets can be found in every betting site. For this article, we will take a look at the bet for Super Bowl 54 MVP.
Should’ve Been Lamar’s Year
This was supposed to be Lamar Jackson’s year. The Ravens’ quarterback set one record after another this season, leading Baltimore to the best record in the NFL this season and the top seed in the playoffs. During the regular season:
- Jackson became the first quarterback in NFL history to have five 100-yard rushing games in a single season.
- He became the first quarterback since Michael Vick to rush for at least 1000 yards in a single season and then broke Vick’s mark for most rushing yards by a quarterback in a single season.
- Also became the first quarterback to throw 30 touchdowns and rush for 1,000 yards in a single season and the first to throw for 3,000+ yards while rushing for 1,000+ yards in a single season.
There were more and I could go on but my point is that this was Lamar’s year until the Ravens got ambushed by the Tennessee Titans 12-28 in the divisional round of the playoffs.
Before the Ravens’ ouster, Jackson was both the favorite to win the 2019 NFL MVP and Super Bowl 54 MVP. With Baltimore out, Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs has emerged as the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl 54 MVP. Per the online sportsbook BetOnline as of January 30, 2020, these are the odds to win the MVP award at this weekend’s Super Bowl 54:
- Patrick Mahomes +115
- Jimmy Garoppolo +275
- Raheem Mostert +550
- George Kittle +1000
- Travis Kelce +1500
- Tyreek Hill +1500
- Nick Bosa +1800
- Damien Williams +2200
- Deebo Samuel +2500
- Richard Sherman +4000
Who Are the Favorites?
The NFL’s reigning MVP is the current frontrunner. Patrick Mahomes was the Chiefs’ 10th overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft. After spending his rookie season as the backup to Alex Smith, he took over in his sophomore season and threw for 5,097 yards with 50 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He became the first player to throw 5,000 yards in college and the NFL and joined Tom Brady and Peyton Manning as the only quarterbacks to throw for 50 touchdowns in a single season. This year, Mahomes led the Chiefs to their first Super Bowl appearance in 50 years. Mahomes threw for 4,031 passing yards with 26 touchdowns and only five interceptions while leading Kansas City to a second consecutive 12-4 season. Mahomes threw three touchdown passes and rushed for one TD. With the Chiefs as slight favorites to win Super Bowl 54, Mahomes is the favorite to win the Super Bowl 54 MVP award.
Jimmy Garoppolo was the 2nd round pick of the New England Patriots in 2014 (62nd overall). After backing up Tom Brady in two Super Bowl wins, Garoppolo was traded to the San Francisco 49ers in 2017. After spending the majority of the 2018 season healing a torn AC, Garoppolo returned with a vengeance in 2019 and led the 49ers to their first 8-0 start since 1990 to guarantee their first winning season since 2014. But it didn’t stop there. The 49ers won the NFC West and clinched home-field advantage in the NFC Conference. Jimmy G was hampered by a knee injury in the NFC title game and completed only six passes for 77 yards. Despite that, San Francisco defeated Green Bay 37-20 to advance to the Super Bowl.
Raheem Mostert joined the 49ers in 2016 after he was released by the Chicago Bears. Mostert had his best NFL season in 2019 as he racked up a total of 772 rushing yards on 137 carries with 8 rushing touchdowns. He also caught a total of 180 yards with two touchdown grabs. After 49ers lead back Tevin Coleman was carted off the field in the second quarter of the NFC championship game with a shoulder injury, Mostert took over and finished the game with 220 rushing yards on 29 carries with 4 touchdowns. His impressive effort in the title game caused his odds to spike up.
George Kittle led the 49ers in receiving yards with a total of 1,053 during the regular season. The 26-year old tight end set the single-season record for most receiving yards by a tight-end at 1,377 last season. Kittles caught a total of 85 passes in 14 regular-season games. However, Kittles only one catch in the NFC title game as the 49ers were committed to run the football.
Travis Kelce led the Kansas City Chiefs in receiving yards with a total of 1,299 on 97 catches with five touchdowns. Kelce is a 5-time pro-bowler and 4-time All-Pro selection. He holds the NFL record for most seasons with receiving yards at 4 by a tight end. Given how good the San Francisco defense is in containing wide receivers, Kelce could be the X-factor in this game. If he catches multiple touchdown passes and accumulates over 100 receiving yards on Sunday, he is a good value pick.
Tyreek Hill is coming off a big outing at the AFC championship game. The 25-year old known as the “Cheetah” for his speed had 5 catches for 67 yards with two touchdowns. During the regular season, Hill caught a total of 58 passes for 860 yards with seven touchdown grabs. Although he is coming off a big game, the worry on Hill is that since the Super Bowl MVP is determined by fans and media votes, he might not get the numbers even if he plays a big game because of his personal history of domestic abuse.
Nick Bosa is one of the main reasons why the 49ers have been impressive on defense this season. Bosa was San Francisco’s 2nd overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft and he has been a handful for the opposition with his ability to pressure the quarterback and play the run. He is a strong candidate for Defensive Player of the Year honors and if the 49ers beat the Chiefs with the San Francisco pass rush stopping Mahomes, Bosa could be in consideration for MVP honors.
When you look at the odds board, the top two names on the list are quarterbacks. That’s because quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl MVP 29 times or more than 50% of the time. Runningbacks and wide receivers have won seven each while defensive players have won a total of 10 times.
Last year, Julie Edelman caught 10 catches for 141 yards to become the 7th wideout to win the Super Bowl MVP award, doing so at Super Bowl 53 last year, so there is a chance that a non-quarterback player wins the award this weekend. Remember that Edelman was at +2000 when he won the award. However, if you like trends, it will be Mahomes or Garoppolo for you.
The Super Bowl MVP has been awarded to a player from the winning team in all but once instance. Only Chuck Howley in Super Bowl V has won the MVP award while playing for the losing team. It’s been a long time since that happened, and it’s unlikely going to happen again. So before making your bet here, be sure to pick your winning team first. Given the odds for Super Bowl 54, it’s going to be a tightly contested game that will make the pick for MVP even more tricky.
I’ll stick with history here and go with the safe bets. I like Mahomes’ offense over San Francisco’s defense so I will have to pick Patrick Mahomes. If you want me to pick from the other team, I will go with Nick Bosa because if the 49ers win this one, it will be because of their defense.
Prediction: Patrick Mahomes