The New Legends Stage is starting to get serious, with two teams having secured their spot in the top eight, and two teams having been eliminated from contention. This stage has been messier than I anticipated so far, with a fair few upsets, which has made it particularly hard to make any real money. But, that’s the way CS:GO betting goes unfortunately. The slate of games for round 4 looks pretty juicy at first glance, so let’s dig in and see if we can find any value.

As always, the odds are pulled from Betway, and we recommend you check out any of our recommended sites:

In round 3, the move on games went about how you’d expect, minus a map upset from Renegades. In the elimination games, however, both games were bloodbaths, sending two of the more promising teams home. BIG lost to ENCE in a close 2-1, which was going to be a close game regardless. The most surprising result of the day was compLexity 2-0 over NRG, which no one saw coming.

2-1 Matches

Renegades (-134) – Vitality (-106)

Renegades are in rare company after their performance against Astralis. Even though they ceded the series 2-1, in a stomp on Inferno no less, not many teams have even taken a map off Astralis, and there are plenty of teams who have won less rounds on Nuke when in the same server as the Danes. Putting up even a positive team performance against Astralis is a big deal, and makes Renegades look even more legitimate. Keep in mind, Astralis beat compLexity 16-6 and shut out Cloud9 completely.

All that said, Renegades has still only played nine maps so far in Katowice. This team could come crashing back to Earth at any moment, especially if their stars fail to show up like they did in the back half of their best-of-three yesterday.

Vitality are in a much more confusing spot as a team right now. Their best win of the tournament so far is probably over BIG? As a reminder, they’ve beaten Grayhounds, Vega, ViCi, BIG, and Cloud9 so far this tournament, with one absurdly close loss to Na’Vi on Mirage 22-25.

That loss is arguably their best performance of the tournament so far, mostly due to a performance from ZywOo that managed to simultaneously be quiet, and a bold announcement that he had officially arrived in tier one.

ZywOo went 32-31, with an ADR of 69.4 and a KAST of 74.5%. If none of those numbers jump off the page at you, you aren’t alone. A look at the scoreboard shows a kid, out of his depth, floundering in the face of one of the most talented players in CS:GO. What those numbers don’t tell you is that ZywOo was 14-19 at the end of regulation, which means in the 17 rounds of overtime he went 18-12 and kept Vitality in the game even in the face of the undertaker, s1mple.

ZywOo proved himself as a number one option in that game, and he really impressed the hell out of me. He’s quickly turning into the kind of player I don’t want to have money against, which makes this game a tough one.

Renegades or Vitality, rock solid teamplay or the birth of a perennial all-star? I think I have to give the edge to Renegades, by a hair. Every player on the Australian side contributes in every game, which is something I can’t say about Vitality. Neither RpK nor NBK broke .55 KPR, which doesn’t bode well for their chances in a competitive best-of-three.

Na’Vi (-223) – AVANGAR (+155)

This is another tough one, but for a completely different reason. I have very, very little faith in Na’Vi. They’ve been playing disorganized Counter Strike that has relied on flamie popping off all tournament, and flamie is not exactly known for his consistency. They lost 14-16 to Liquid on Mirage before getting blown out of the server on Dust 2, winning only 2 CT rounds in a heavily CT sided meta.

AVANGAR, on the other hand, scare me because they’re the overperforming CIS team. There’s always one, every Major, and it looks like it’s their turn. They’ve bested FaZe and NRG so far in this stage on the backs of huge performances by Jame, which are going to need to continue coming up against Na’Vi.

I like AVANGAR here at +155. Na’Vi has looked awful since the beginning of the tournament, and I don’t trust that they’ll be able to put it together before they get upset by AVANGAR. If AVANGAR is smart they’ll be able to get Dust 2, along with Mirage, which could lead to a 2-0. I wish the odds were a little better for AVANGAR, but I still like them here.

MIBR (-154) – NiP (+110)

Both of these teams have had embarrassing games. MIBR got stomped by Cloud9, on one of MIBR’s most played maps. NiP almost blew their game against NRG, bringing home the win 16-14, over a team that went 0-3, and who’s best player was a complete no show.

Luckily for MIBR, they have an excuse. That game against Cloud9 was their first official as a roster since they shuffled during the player break, and they have improved every game since. In their most recent game against G2, they pulled off several big clutches, coldzera looks great, FalleN is slowly turning back into prime FalleN, things seem to be gelling.

The thing that scares me the most is MIBR’s map pool. They’ve only played three games so far, ever, two of which have been on Inferno. I don’t know if their map pool can handle a best-of-three against a team with much more experience.

I do like MIBR here though. Coldzera had 35 against G2 yesterday, which is about as good as it gets.

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