Popular Betting Systems
Betting Systems
No matter how hard you try or how well your chosen betting system is designed, one simple fact holds true. The house is a monster that you will usually not be able to beat. Betting systems simply do not work. Not only do they give you an advantage over the house, they do not even come close. If you are playing craps or roulette, the chance of the same result occurring again and again are just as likely as results adhering to your chosen betting system.
The sad fact is that sometimes, betting systems work. Do they work because they are a good system? No. They work because sometimes the games turn out the way that a betting system says they will. This is no more skill on the part of the author of said betting system than it is pure luck. This article will examine two of the most common betting systems and exactly why these systems do not work and are an unwise investment.
The Gambler’s Fallacy
One of the most prevalent myths about gambling is referred to as the Gambler’s Fallacy. In this myth, the belief is that a specific event that has not occurred over a long period of time will be likely to occur in the future. This is absolutely wrong. If you are playing roulette and the wheel lands on a black number four times, it is not more likely to land on a red number the fifth time. The probability of the ball coming to rest on a black color remains the same as it was on the very first spin, 1:1.
This fallacy is exactly the same as the one contained in other sources called the Monte Carlo Fallacy. Almost every betting system relies on the delusion that chances for any set outcome increase as said outcome is not achieved. Once again, this belief is absolutely false. The best betting system that you can use is an excellent understanding of the odds, rules and pay out ratios of each game that you play.
The Martingale
Another common betting system is referred to as the Martingale. This system relies on the myth that if you double each bet that you place, you will eventually come out ahead due to loss and gain ratios afforded by increasing betting practices. However, this system works about as well as the Gambler’s Fallacy. The Martingale operates as follows:
Begin with an initial bet. Let’s say this bet is $2.
After betting the original $2, increase your next bet to $4 (regardless of the outcome of the first bet).
Your next bet would be $8.
Your next bet would be $16.
Your final bet would be $32.
Let’s assume that you lost the first four bets and won the fifth bet. If that occurred, you would have gained a profit of $2. We come to this conclusion by adding the first four bets (2+4+8+16 = 30) and subtracting the total form the fifth bet win. The system is the same regardless of which bets you win or lose. However, you may lose all five bets and continue to lose your entire bank roll very quickly. This system does not cancel the house edge.
In fact, during testing, the Martingale system was shown to, at best, play the same as flat betting (or a continuous bet of a set amount) and, at worst, result in severe losses to the player. Overall, the ratio of wins and losses remained at 7/495 for both Martingale and flat betting systems. On average, substantial losses were recorded in 19.65% of the Martingale sessions.
Related Articles: